Category Archives: Offshore

Benchmark Commentary No. 1459

(SGS Subscription required) • Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses
• Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946
• Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary
• Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change
• The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2
• This Masked Accelerating Flight-to-Liquidity in Traditional M1 from Non-M1 Components of M2
• ShadowStats Defined “Basic M1” — Combined Currency and Demand Deposits — Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply
• Expanded Federal Reserve Accommodation Remains Likely Well Into 2023, Given the Increasingly Negative Outlook for Imminent U.S. Economic Recovery
• Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the
• That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation
• Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems
• Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary

Flash Commentary No. 1458

(SGS Subscription required) • January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse
• Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago
• While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index® Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago
• Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story
• First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction
• January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High
• U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates
• Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Developing Inflation and Financial-Market Turmoil

Flash Commentary No. 1457

(SGS Subscription required) • Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5%
• In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic
• Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing
• January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions
• Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk
• Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation
• Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes
• Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions

Flash Commentary No. 1456

(SGS Subscription required) • Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound
• Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset
• Current U.S. Remains Far from a Full Recovery
• First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction
• Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Reporting
• Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006
• Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues
• Financial Market Turmoil Is Just Beginning

Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1455

(SGS Subscription required) • Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020
• Narrowing Annual Declines in October and November Payrolls Stalled at 6.0% (-6.0%), But the Year-to-Year Drop in December 2020 Payrolls Deepened to 6.2% (-6.2%)
• An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7%
• December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction
• December 2020 Cass Freight Index® Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity
• Momentum of Fourth-Quarter Data Suggests a First-Quarter 2021 GDP Contraction, As the Pandemic and Political Tumult Take on Negative New Dimensions
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: “We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery”
• Latest Weekly Money Supply M1 Jumped an Unprecedented 72.3% Year-to-Year
• Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse
• Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress
• Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Coming Inflation and Market Turmoil