Category Archives: Offshore

Flash Commentary No. 1452

(SGS Subscription required) • October 2020 Cass Freight Index® Turned Positive Year-to-Year, Gaining 2.4% Against an Unusually Sharp, Unseasonable Decline the Year Before
• Such Was the First Annual Gain in Freight Activity Since November 2018, When Excessive Fed Tightening Was Being Used to Constrain Consumer Liquidity and Domestic Economic Growth
• Where Pandemic Forced the Shutdown of the U.S. in March 2020, FOMC Rate Hikes Already Had Strangled Business Activity
• October Industrial Production Continued in L-Shaped Recovery, With Annual Change Flattening Out in Negative Territory
• Annual Boom of 5.7% in October Real Retail Sales Was Not Credible; Related Retail Employment and Consumer Goods Production Continued in Annual Decline, Despite the Gain in Freight Activity
• On Top of an Upside Revision, Housing Starts Gained 4.9% in the Month; This Was Not Statistically Significant at the 90% Confidence Interval
• On Top of a Downside Revision, October Building Permits Monthly Change Flattened Out at a Statistically Significant 0.0%

Flash Commentary No. 1451

(SGS Subscription required) • Positive News on COVID-19 Vaccines and Treatments Rallied Stocks to Pre-Pandemic Peaks
• Pandemic-Related Structural Damage to the , However, Promises a Troubled Recovery, With Meaningful Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus Likely Continuing Beyond 2021
• FOMC Will Maintain Its Emergency Monetary Expansion For the Duration of the Economic Crisis, Looking to Boost Inflation
• At Historic Highs, October 2020 Money Supply Continued to Surge
• With Presidential Election Results Under Challenge, Political Uncertainties Can Roil the Financial Markets
• Democrat Control of Both the Congress and Executive Branch Would Threaten U.S. Dollar Stability and Exacerbate Inflation Risks
• October 2020 Employment Growth Continued Faltering in an L-Shaped Economic Recovery
• Headline October Inflation Remained Muted by the Oil-Price War
• Third-Quarter 2020 Trade Deficit Was Worst in History

Flash Commentary No. 1450

(SGS Subscription required) • Economic Rebound Continues to Falter
• Advance-Estimate, Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Growth Exploded at an Unprecedented, Annualized Real Pace of 33.08%
• The Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Annual Year-to-Year Decline Also Narrowed to 1.78% (-1.78%), from 9.03% (-9.03%) in Second-Quarter 2020
• Third-Quarter GDP Activity Held Well Shy of Recovery, Even Though It Rebounded Sharply from a Record Annualized 31.38% (-31.38%) Second-Quarter Plunge
• The Level of Real, Inflation-Adjusted Third-Quarter GDP Was the Lowest Since First-Quarter 2018
• Unlikely Annualized Fourth-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Growth of 15.2% Still Would Be Needed for a Full Economic Recovery This Year
• Instead, Key Monthly Economic Series Have Been Locking Fourth-Quarter Activity Into a Faltering, L-Shaped Recovery

Flash Commentary No. 1449

(SGS Subscription required) • Federal Reserve Will Maintain Its 0.00% to 0.25% Targeted Fed Funds Rate and “At Least” the Current Pace of Asset Purchases, For the Duration
• Broad FOMC Outlook Appears Little Changed in Wake of September Meeting
• Policies Will Continue Until Both Full Employment and Targeted, Prospective Inflation Running Above 2.0% Are Attained
• FOMC Projections Suggest No Return to Normal Conditions Before 2024; Expectations Are for GDP Recovery of Pre-Pandemic Levels Around Fourth-Quarter 2021
• ShadowStats Conclusions: Policy Effects Will Mean a Continued Money Supply Spike, With Consumer Inflation Mounting Rapidly in the Next Six-to-Nine Months

Flash Commentary No. 1448

(SGS Subscription required) • Evolving, “L”-Shaped Economic Recovery Confirmed by Latest, Consistent Reporting of New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
• August 2020 CPI and PPI Core Inflation Continued to Spike
• Record Annual Money Supply Growth Foreshadows Higher Inflation
• While Record Money Growth Appears to Be Topping, the Leading-Relationship Federal Reserve Monetary Base Annual Growth Is Surging Anew
• Pending FOMC Could Look to Accelerate Already Record Money Supply Growth and the Pickup in Core Inflation
• Broader Money Measures Should Resume Annual Expansion in September/October With Inflation Accelerating Sharply in Early 2021