Category Archives: Offshore

Flash Commentary No, 1460b

(SGS Subscription required) • Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary
• There Is No V-Shaped Recovery
• Battered, Non-Recovered May 2021 Payrolls and Unemployment Confirmed a Still-Ravaged on Par With the Great Depression
• Severely Negative Annual Revisions to Industrial Production Mean the Was in Recession Well Before the Pandemic Hit
• Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation
• 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present
• FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead
• Despite Talk of “Tightening” in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is “Easing” Anew in Its Latest Actions

Flash Commentary No. 1460a

(SGS Subscription required) • Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard
• New Numbers Indicate the Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse
• Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak
• New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak
• Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels
• April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%)
• Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook
• Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking
• Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies
• Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary

Benchmark Commentary No. 1459

(SGS Subscription required) • Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses
• Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946
• Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary
• Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change
• The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2
• This Masked Accelerating Flight-to-Liquidity in Traditional M1 from Non-M1 Components of M2
• ShadowStats Defined “Basic M1” — Combined Currency and Demand Deposits — Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply
• Expanded Federal Reserve Accommodation Remains Likely Well Into 2023, Given the Increasingly Negative Outlook for Imminent U.S. Economic Recovery
• Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the
• That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation
• Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems
• Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary

Flash Commentary No. 1458

(SGS Subscription required) • January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse
• Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago
• While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index® Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago
• Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story
• First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction
• January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High
• U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates
• Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Developing Inflation and Financial-Market Turmoil

Flash Commentary No. 1457

(SGS Subscription required) • Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5%
• In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic
• Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing
• January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions
• Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk
• Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation
• Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes
• Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions