The Most Important Chart To Consider Before Tomorrow's ADP Jobs Report

We are sure that tomorrow’s ADP report will be taken as either, a) proof positive that December’s miss in NFP was a weather-related artifice hiding the true awesomeness of the US recovery (and this no un-taper); or b) the most recent macro data is indeed weak and job creation have peaked for this cycle (despite a few trillion in balance sheet expansion by the Fed). However, as the following chart shows, any surprise beat (or miss) in ADP is entirely useless as a predictor of payroll surprises



h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer


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