After multiple months of positive acceleration, Goldman expect the Global Leading Indicator to continue to stabilize around current levels in the coming months. The infamous Swirlogram shows that the last 3 months have seen the indicator in “slowdown” mode – which Goldman optimistically notes is on the border of ‘expansion’ also…and while they see no clear evidence of further acceleration, they see overall level of growth at solid levels.
Five of the ten underlying components improved in December. On the positive side, Global New Orders less Inventories (NOIN) continued to improve, again making a new post-2011 high. The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index® recovered last month’s losses and the Japanese Inventory/Sales ratio also improved again. The Baltic Dry Index jumped higher and the Consumer Confidence aggregate reversed course after two months of declines.
On the negative side, the AUD & CAD weakened on the month. The Global PMI aggregate was softer while Korean exports continued to fall, and the Belgian and Netherlands Manufacturing Survey was lower from last month but remains close to its two-year high. Finally, US Initial Jobless Claims rose again from last month’s drop, likely also impacted by heightened volatility around the holiday season.
Source: Goldman Sachs