In the near term, BofAML’s Macneil Curry warns “we are growing a bit cautious/nervous, as US equity volatility is flashing a warning sign of market complacency that has often preceded a correction or a pause in trend.” This ‘red flag’ is asterisk’d appropriately in the new normal with “to be clear, the balance of evidence is still very much US equity positive, but the near term downside risks have increased.”
Via BofAML’s MacNeil Curry,
We are bullish stocks, with the S&P500 targeting 1844 into year end [ZH: which sounds awfully close to an extraplotaed protjection of where the Fed’s balance sheet implies year-end target].
However, in the near term, equity volatility warns of complacency and the potential for a correction lower.
Specifically, the VXV/VIX ratio (VXV is the BBG ticker for 3m SP500 Volatility) has reached levels that have often led to a market pause/correction.
While such a pullback would ultimately be corrective, Be Alert!