Despite Ron Insana’s insta-dismissal of all things “Austrian”, and Maria Bartiromo’s scoffing at his comments, Mark Spitznagel (who most recently discussed the problems we face here, here and here) ventured on to the unreality channel this afternoon and much eyebrow-raising ensued. Spitznagel, author of The Dao of Capital , explained why he believes “the market is setup for a major crash,” and expects a 40% decline in stocks. The current market “entirely artificial” environment driven by zero-interest-rates and central bank asset purchases, along with valuations and sentiment, has distorted the ‘markets’ in the same way as “in all other major tops in history.” His investing advice is simple, “step aside!” But doesn’t expect many to heed his proven advice, because, “it is the hardest thing to do right now, “and makes you look like a fool.”
“this notion of a ‘catalyst’ for the decline is false”…
If you prefer your business media with a sense of reality – the following 210 seconds is must watch!
As Spitznagel noted previously,
Our fear of corrective crashes is misplaced. They are necessary purges to clear the financial system of unhealthy mal-investment and to allow the redistribution of resources to stronger industries. I would argue that had the government followed this path in 1929, there would have been a garden-variety recession — not a Depression.
Unfortunately, we have labored under faulty assumptions and failed logic, particularly since 2008-2009. This is the legacy that Bernanke leaves not only to his successor, but to all of us.
What we must learn from history is that the government should stop suppressing the natural, homeostatic functions of the market. Otherwise, the “cure” will prove deadlier than the disease.