It was only Monday that Goldman’s Damien Couravlin was pounding the table and gold right under it. A quick, and historic, $70 move higher in gold in one day following Bernanke’s most recent confirmation he really has no clue what he is doing in terms of monetary policy (if knowing quite well what he is doing for the S&P and its 1950 year end price target), was all that it took for Goldman to flip flop and now suggest that there is “risk to gold prices as skewed to the upside in the near-term, in our view.”
Frankly, we hope Goldman is wrong and gold plunges to triple, double or single digit territory, allowing those who are not blinded by the absolute and sheer idiocy of what is glaringly an attempt to reflate the largest asset bubble at all costs. If anything, today the Fed finally confirmed that the only way out is to inflate away the debt, which eventually will involve unanchoring inflation expectations, proceeding with “NGDP targeting” (a fancy way of saying printing a lot and then also paradropping some cash from the sky), and leading to the sequestering of all hard assets not nailed to the ground.
Via Goldman Sachs,
Near-term upside on delayed taper but still bearish into 2014
The FOMC unexpectedly decided not to taper the rate of its asset purchases, preferring to wait for further confirmation of improvement in the US economic outlook. This announcement, as well as Bernanke’s press conference, was more dovish than most had expected, pushing gold prices to $1,365/toz. The decision, combined with the upcoming debt ceiling debate, leaves risks to gold prices as skewed to the upside in the near-term.
Of course, as we have pointed out perviously, the last time that Goldman told clients to be epically short the precious metal, they were – in fact – buying it in record amounts… which perhaps explains their cover-your-ass moment later in today’s report that things will end badly…
Via Goldman Sachs,
However, with gold prices already back near their pre-June FOMC level, COMEX net speculative positioning already back at its April level as well as growing pressures on EM gold demand, we believe that this upside will ultimately prove limited. We believe this is well illustrated by today’s more muted rally in gold prices when compared to the significant rally in 10-year TIPS yields, helping close the significant valuation gap that had occurred between both assets over the past month.
As a result, we re-iterate our neutral stance on gold prices and continue to expect that gold prices will resume their decline heading into 2014 when we expect economic data to solidly confirm a reacceleration in US growth and warrant a less accommodative monetary policy stance.