The "War" Effect

How do markets (US equities, Gold, Crude Oil, and the USD) react around US military conflicts…? Citi shows what happened before-and-after the Gulf War, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya… and why Syria is arguably more complex than these previous conflicts

(click image for large legible version)

 

Via Citi,

S&P: trades better once conflict begins. This time should be no different.

 

Gold: falls after start of action. Again should be no different.

 

Crude: usually falls at or just prior to start of military action.

 

USD: reverts back to dominant trend. USD weakened post-action in 1991, 2003, 2011 as it was in a bear market. The opposite happened in 1999 and 2001 (USD bull market). This time around USD strength should return once military intervention begins.

One counterpoint: Syria is arguably more complex than these previous conflicts. Military objectives are also not as well defined. Russia and Iran will also weigh in both pre- and post-action. The usual market reaction may be more muted and short-lived because of greater uncertainties.

    



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