In January 2013, my favorite wealth management firm held a call in which they laid out their case that 2013 would be the year we see a “parabolic” housing recovery. Since we’re told daily by the head tweeter that they never lose, it’s worth following some of these calls.
Let’s walk through their thesis and see how that’s all working out.
1. Housing Starts – “Parabolic Recovery”
Status: Define parabolic recovery
2. Mortgage Apps have “Stabilized”
Status: Define stabilized
3. There’s a “rate tailwind”, and there is “significantly improving affordability”
Status: Define tailwind & affordability
4. Homebuilder confidence is soaring, which means the economy must agree with that, which means you shouldn’t short housing
Status: It remains true that NAHB confidence is through the roof. Define not a good short…
After all of this, I bet I know what you’re thinking: Hedgeye has conference calls?