Just How Bad Is The US Economy?

There appears to be a level of optimism priced into every macro-economic forecast. Whether this is simply mean-reverting models or a systematic need to justify an ever-increasing equity market is unclear but over the past few years the consensus GDP growth forecast has fallen by around 0.7 percentage points over the year before its final release (as hope turns to reality). So just how bad is the current environment? With the latest update of Q2 2013’s GDP consensus forecast now at 1.0%, the last year has seen the consensus drop a stunning 2.0 percentage points (almost triple the average loss of hope). Of course, as we noted here, we’ll make it all up in H2 2013 (even as CEO after CEO adjust down their outlooks). Have no fear though – as Jason Schenker from Prestige Economics still believes we will get a +2.2% print for Q2 2013.



with the distribution quite concentrated…


though there are still plenty of optimists…


Charts: Bloomberg

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)


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