Is Oil's Massively-Crowded Long The US Economy's Last Best Hope?

While record shorts in Gold and record longs in Japanese stocks are apparently generally ignored – since they are ‘with the status quo positive consensus’ – the massive explosion in speculative (non-commercial) net longs in WTI Crude futures is perhaps the last-best hope for the US economic outlook (on a short-covering scramble).

 

Given the lag in the production cycle, gas prices (which have risen 20 in the last 10 days) look set to extend their rise in the next month – overtaking record-high prices for the time of year and eating dramatically into the average US citizen’s pocket.

 

With oil spec longs as a percent of open interest in an extreme over-crowded long position, BofAML notes, a break below $103.38 may be the signal to cover…

…and save the US from its implicit tax hike at a time when GDP expectations drop lower and lower.

 

    

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