The Remarkable Goldman Extrapolation Engine Strikes Again

When it comes to Muppet-bating, there is still only one; and “The Highlander” of all strategists is none other than Goldman’s David Kostin. His somewhat-exuberant year-end target for the S&P 500 at 1,750 pales in comparison to his wonderfully extrapolated – never gonna be another recession ever again – view of earnings and implicitly the S&P 500 out to 2015. At 2,100, his forecast based on 8%, 9%, and 11% rallies seems so possible when all one can see is the last few years of data… we just hope he and his clients are not disappointed when the hockey-stick doesn’t turn and peak margins finally weighs on the reality of a rising debt-cost corporate universe unable to fund buybacks or dividends on the cheap anymore.



What could go wrong?


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