Goldman: "We Think That Payrolls Will Likely Disappoint"

For all those unable to sleep tonight without the knowledge what Goldman thinks about this week’s most important economic release, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number (and the unemployment rate, which is guaranteed to continue the previously observed divergence from GDP in a centrally-planned and completely “brokun Okun” environment), read on for your trivial Ambien. From Goldman “Our forecasts for the US dataset to be released this week will likely be mixed for rates… we think that payrolls will likely disappoint market expectations.” As a reminder, consensus expectations are for a 165K print, declining from May’s 175K, while Jan Hatzius now expects 150K. And with that the second great US renaissance which Hatzius forecast in late 2012 is being “tapered” away the same way his 4% GDP prediction in late 2010 devolved into sheer nothingness.

Of course, the only reason Goldman now wishes subpar economic data is to extend as far as possible the market’s repricing of tapering, and in a “bad is good world”, sending stocks higher now that for nearly two months US stocks have gone precisely nowhere, while US credit and international stocks have collapsed on fears of what the world would look like without the Bernanke put.


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