Stolpered Out

Four months after we made our call to short the living daylights out of Cable following the announcement that Goldman’s Mark Carney is coming and is getting ready to crucify the BOE’s balance sheet….

It took Goldman’s Mario Draghi about 3 hours to launch an epic EUR destruction campaign. Anyone going long the GBP here needs therapy

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 26, 2012

….we were confused: +1400 pips in our favor (as the GBPUSD tumbled from 1.6250 to 1.4850), it appeared the profit bonanza would never end, yet we didn’t want to get too greedy. And then came none other than the most invaluable analyst on Wall Street, Goldman’s Tom Stolper, who made our decision for us.

Last Monday, the man who bats between 0.000 and 0.050, boldly went where he had been so many times before, and said to go long EURGBP on “monetary policy and current account differentials” with a stop loss of 85.70. Naturally, we read between the lines.

To wit: “the logical Stolper-contrarians in us say this is precisely the time to fade the relentless move higher in the EURGBP: history is on our side about 93% of the time. After all, Goldman’s prop flow desk is now selling the pair to its clients. This is even as we said to short the GBP with both hands and feet in late November when Carney’s appointment was announced: a move that has resulted in nearly a +1400 pip gain in the GBPUSD short. Oh well, time to take profits.”

Sure enough, as of this posting, EURGBP is now 85.38, well below the designated stop loss, and over 200 pips in favor of those who, as usual, faded perhaps the worst FX “strategist” of all time. Which, incidentally, is why Stolper may well be the most valuable of his breed on Wall Street: rarely has there been man whose calls have made so much money for so many.

Once again: thank you Goldman for doing all you can to crucify what little paying muppets are left, and for facilitating a quick and painless pick of 1,600 pips in four months.

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