Bob Shiller's Healthy Dose Of Skepticism

In a week dominated by prognosticators pointing reflexively to a nominal price index flashing green on their TV as indication that all is well in the world, Bob Shiller provides some much-needed healthy skepticism on not just the state of the housing market but the broad economy itself. While Bloomberg TV’s Tom Keene presses his short-term anchoring-biased view of a world heading for much better growth and a US housing recovery that will seemingly save us all; Shiller warns we have seen this before (in 2009’s housing market) and that the housing decline could go on. When Keene tries to translate the market’s performance into economic performance expectations, Shiller responds “you are talking to wrong man.” From the fact that we should be growing super-normally now to return to ‘normal’ market conditions to his view of many more years to go in this stagnation, four minutes of Shiller’s historical prescience is the perfect foil to the tick-watching talking-heads exuberance (especially in light of today’s dismal new home sales).

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