In their view, 2013 will likely mark the dawn of the post-crisis era, but it seems the premise for Deutsche’s somewhat ebullient 2013 outlook (below) is that central-bankers remain on standby to counter any and all negative risks. Despite the brinksmanship, politicians will act to prevent systemic collapse and while structural long-term issues such as high debts across the developed world and unbalanced growth models in emerging economies remain unsettled, Deutsche argues that 2013 could be a year of stabilization after years of crisis-fighting. The following presentation is broad-based and lays out a “don’t fight the central banker” meme perfectly; however, the six key downside risks (from China NPLs to European political unrest) that they highlight (but gloss over in their somewhat Pollyanna-ish way), should at least – in our humble opinion – raise some concerns about the bimodal distribution of outcomes that await risk assets in 2013.
2012 was tough – but Central Bankers saved the world; more of the same in 2013?
But there remain six key downside risks…
Full presentation below