The Old Normal: Presenting 140 Years Of Market Cycles

Edson Gould, deceased author of the once-famous Findings & Forecasts investment newsletter often said that “History always repeats, only the details change”. This insight, a handful of carefully chosen technical indicators, and a deep understanding of crowd psychology enabled him to make some remarkable calls during his career. The graphic below, courtesy of Addogram, plots Gould’s “Sentimeter” (“the market price of $1 of dividends”) the inverse of the US 10-year Treasury yield, the gold price and an index of commodity prices. Needless to say he was quite right; “History always repeats, only the details change”.


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