AAPL Slides As The Dow Abides

UPDATE: In the last few seconds of trading ES jumped 3 points on Buffet comments about Dimon for Treasury and WSJ chatter about Fiscal Cliff progress (ES +4.25pts on day) – and just like that… the gains were gone – the Kaiser Soze market continues…

 

We have officially run out of expletives to describe the volumelessness of the equity trading markets. Today’s S&P futures volume was dismal – among the lowest volume days of the year (even including holidays and half-days). Today’s range was relatively narrow and while risk-assets in general were highly correlated, there was noise and the liquidity was simply not there. AAPL continued its VWAP-based slide – holding NASDAQ back overall – but with MCD’s gains accounting for around half of the Dow’s gains on the day (and the S&P getting lifted with every VWAP-driven jerk lower in AAPL), it seems the ‘buying’ interest was largely absent. Treasury yields ended lower, VIX higher (though well off its highs of the day), high-yield credit practically unchanged, and the USD very modestly lower providing just enough impetus to keep the S&P green on the day (and the month +0.15%). The Industrials and Transports have recoupled at +1.2% on the month while the NASDAQ languishes -0.77% since 11/30. Oil was probably the mover of the day with WTI -0.3% – notably awry of the +0.5% gains in Silver and Oil and +1.1% in Copper. Financials lagged and Materials led as the day came to a quiet end around VWAP with the machines well and truly in charge.

NASDAQ remains anchored by AAPL as the Dow Industrials and Transports recouple on the month. S&P remains buoyed by AAPL hedge unwinds… NOTE: The Dow closed above its 50DMA and 100DMA – but – the 50DMA crossed below the 100DMA in a mini-death-cross

 

For the month, there appears three sector cohorts: Underweight Tech, Discretionary, Materials; Overweight Financials, Industrials; and Marketweight Energy, Utes, and Staples.

 

AAPL dominates the entire trading day as every fund tries to cling to its YTD gains without destroying the market with its unwind – as game theoretical fun continues (we suspect sooner rather than later, the realization of a first mover advantage will take hold and there’ll be no looking back)…

 

A shocking lack of stop-runs and dumps in precious metals today as the afternoon appeared dead – for all but WTI which slid from the European close…

 

All-in-all, a pretty quiet day with some noise around the models which reflected a notable lack of liquidity out there. But in general risk all played along sideways today…

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: After-hours chatter from Buffett on Dimon for Treasury and WSJ comments on Fiscal Cliff progress pushed SPY up through S&P 500 futures’ close – but there appeared to be no follow-through…


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