Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,
There is no deal here. There is a fantasy of projections and some wishful thinking but no deal. There is not even an agreement on disbursement as codified in the last paragraph of the statement (here). The odds on Greece reaching a primary surplus in the next several years are about 1 degree off of Kelvin’s Absolute Zero [the market seems to agree]
The deferral of interest payments and the extension of the loans have some meaning but are nowhere close to bridging the deficit gap.
All of this of course has to go back to the nations’ Parliaments and it may not be as readily accepted as some hope.
There is not even a definitive agreement yet to give Greece more money.
The debt buy-back (as we discussed here) is governed under British law and while they are once again going after the private sector bondholders there is no CAC to enforce any action though there is the obvious falsification of prior claims that “it will never happen again.”
What we have here are more promises, a concocted ruse and an agreement on a concept that is actually no deal at all.
I would also say that Mr. Draghi lost a good deal of credibility tonight touting this statement as an agreement that would “reduce uncertainty.”
Ms. Lagarde’s statement:
“The initiatives include Greek debt buybacks, return of Securities Market Programme (SMP) profits to Greece, reduction of Greek Loan Facility (GLF) interest rates, significant extension of GLF and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) maturities, and the deferral of EFSF interest rate payments.”
is also factually incorrect as these are “maybe” proposals for the most part as stated in the EU official pronouncement.
What we have here is one more “huff and puff” and no agreement by any definition that I would find acceptable.