Category Archives: Offshore Hosting

Flash Commentary No. 1432

(SGS Subscription required) • First Major Coronavirus Impact on Headline Economic Reporting Devastated March Activity – Only the Final Third of First-Quarter 2020 GDP
• Despite Muted Pandemic Impact, Pending First-Quarter 2020 GDP Contraction Should Rival the Depths of the Great Recession
• Fully Hit Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Rival the Depths of the Great Depression, or Worse
• Since the March 2020 Unemployment Survey, 22 Million New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Have Been Filed, Suggestive of Headline April 2020 Unemployment Topping 22%; It Will Get Worse
• April 2020 Unemployment Rate Will More Than Double Anything Seen Post-World War II, Worst Since the Great Depression
• March 2020 Real Retail Sales Plunged by a Record Monthly 10.3% (-10.3%)
• March 2020 Industrial Production and Manufacturing Showed Their Deepest Monthly Plunges Since the Post-World War II Production Shutdown
• What Had Been a Recent Boom in Housing Starts and Building Permits Was Flattened in First-Quarter 2020 by Weakened March Activity, Second-Quarter 2020 Plunge Already Is in Play
• First- and Second-Quarter 2020 Quarterly Contractions in Real Retail Sales and Manufacturing Follow Pre-Pandemic Fourth-Quarter 2019 Contractions

Flash Commentary No. 1431

(SGS Subscription required) • March 2020 Cass Freight Index Plunged by 9.2% (-9.2%) Year-to-Year
• Continuing, Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Increasingly Mirror the Onset of the Great Recession
• Deepening Annual Declines in Freight Activity Are Not Consistent With a Pre-Pandemic Booming
• They Also Never Supported FOMC Claims of Pre-Pandemic Sustainable Moderate Economic Growth in Place
• They Are Consistent With Fourth-Quarter 2019 and First-Quarter 2020 Contractions in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales
• They Also Likely Foreshadow a Quarterly Contraction in Real First-Quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product

Special Commentary No. 1430

(SGS Subscription required) • Financial-System Insolvency Laid Bare by the Pandemic, as Circumstances Accelerate Towards a Hyperinflationary Great Depression
• Federal Reserve Moves Towards Unlimited Currency Creation, While the Federal Government Promises Unfettered Deficit Spending, All Looking to Bailout Wall Street and the Banks, and to Provide Some Consumer Liquidity Relief
• Extraordinarily Unstable Circumstances Continue in the Global Markets; Economic, Financial-Market and Political Turmoil Likely Have Just Begun, Despite Ongoing, Massive Systemic Manipulations and Interventions
• Holding Physical Gold Remains the Primary, Fundamental Hedge Here; Gold and the Swiss Franc Should Continue to Hold Their Own Against What Increasingly Should Be a Faltering U.S. Dollar
• Recession/Depression, Triggered by Pandemic-Exacerbated Systemic Instabilities, Should Begin to Surface With the March Labor Data Release on April 3rd
• From Pre-Pandemic Headline U.3 Unemployment Low of 3.5% in February 2020, U.3 Could Hit 5% in March and 25% in April (with April ShadowStats-Alternate at 43%)
• Quarterly Contractions/Collapses Loom for First- and Second-Quarter 2020 GDP, Respectively, of About 8% (-8%) and Nearly 40% (-40%), Assuming Current Pandemic Constraints Remain in Place, Accompanied by Major Government Stimulus through June
• Although Being Overwritten by the Crises-Driven Economic Contraction, the Still Deepening Pre-Crises Downturn Seen in February 2020 Freight Activity, Retail Sales and Production Provides a Soft Underbelly for the New Recession
• Reliability Issues Loom With Pandemic-Disrupted Economic Surveying and Numbers

Special Commentary No. 1429

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Liquidity Panic: Federal Funds Rate Cut a Full Percentage Point on March 15th to a Range of 0.00% to 0.25%, Following a March 3rd 50 Basis-Point Cut to a Range of 1.00% to 1.25%
• Federal Reserve Also Has Lined Up Dollar Liquidity Support With the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank
• This Signals Extraordinarily Unstable Circumstances at Work in the Global Markets
• Nonetheless, Physical Gold and the Swiss Franc Should Continue to Hold Their Own Against What Likely Will Remain a Faltering U.S. Dollar
• Pandemic and Oil Price Disruptions Are Overwriting and Seriously Deepening What Already Was an Intensifying Economic Downturn
• First- and Second-Quarter 2020 Quarterly GDP Contractions Should Rival or Exceed Great Recession Numbers
• Economic Growth Could Stabilize at Lower Levels by Year-End, Depending on How the Systemic Shocks Play Out
• Economic and Financial-Market Disruptions Have Just Begun, Despite the Extraordinary Systemic Manipulations and Interventions
• Federal Reserve Viability and Loss of Systemic Control Have Been Brought to a Head, With the Coronavirus Whirlwind Ripping Away the Veneer of Post-2008 Financial- and Banking-System Recovery and Stability

Flash Update No. 25

(SGS Subscription required) • A Rough Couple of Weeks for Stocks, While Physical Gold and the Swiss Franc Held Their Own
• Third-Quarter 2019 Gross Domestic Income Growth (Theoretical GDP Equivalent) Just Revised Lower to 1.2% from 2.1%, Due to Employment/Payroll Revisions; Negative GDP Revisions Keep Lining Up for the July 30th Benchmarking
• Fourth-Quarter 2019 Quarterly Declines in Real Retail Sales and Manufacturing, and Deepening Annual Collapse in Freight Activity, All Preceded the Coronavirus Crisis
• FOMC NEEDS TO CUT INTEREST RATES NOW: Underlying Consumer Fundamentals and Activity Continue to Suffer, Separate from Any Pandemic Considerations
• Pre-Pandemic Consumer Financial Woes Reflect Excessive 2017-2018 Rate Hikes, Complicated by Insufficient, Subsequent FOMC Rate-Relief Easing
• Yet, Wall Street and the Fed Chairman Have Claimed the Consumer Continues to Boom, that the Consumer is Financially Healthy and Happy
• Unfolding Pandemic Now Gives the Fed a Headline Excuse for Easing, Without Having to Admit to its Own Economic/Monetary-Policy Malfeasance