Category Archives: Offshore Hosting

No. 942-A: Industrial Production Benchmarking, February New Orders, Freight Index, Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • Industrial Production Revised Meaningfully Lower, Dominated by Much-Weaker Manufacturing, As Predicted
• Signals Mount for First-Quarter GDP Contraction, as the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Disaster-Recovery Boom Turns to a Bust
• Real Durable Goods Orders, Both Aggregate and Ex-Commercial-Aircraft, Showed an Unfolding Flat-to-Minus First-Quarter, Versus a Fourth-Quarter Boom
• Real New Orders Activity Remained Shy in Aggregate by 8.0% (-8.0%), and in Ex-Commercial Aircraft by 5.3% (-5.3%) from Recovering Pre-Recessions Highs
• Still Shy by 11.2% (-11.2%) of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, February Freight Index Hit a Post-Recession High
• Both New- and Existing-Home Sales Showed Large Fourth-Quarter Gains Turning into Large First-Quarter Contractions
• Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Mixed, but Held Shy of Their Pre-Recession Peaks by 55.5% (-55.5%) and 23.8% (-23.8%)

No. 941: February Industrial Production and Housing Starts

(SGS Subscription required) • Subject to Likely, Downside Annual Benchmark Revisions this Coming Friday, February Industrial Production Jumped by 1.1% (0.9% Net of Revisions), Reflecting Strength in Manufacturing and Mining
• Given a Record 122 Months of Non-Expansion, Manufacturing Still Holds Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 3.7% (-3.7%)
• Manufacturing Gains Likely Reflected Some Inventory Rebuilding Against Weakening Sales, As Disaster-Recovery Bloat Passes from the System
• Continuing in Nonsensical Monthly Booms and Busts, February Housing Starts Activity Fell by 7.0% (-7.0%),
Still Shy by 45.6% (-45.6%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• First-Quarter 2018 GDP Outlook Continued to Weaken
• Nonetheless, the FOMC Appears Set for a Rate Hike on Wednesday

No. 940: February Retail Sales, Real Income, CPI, PPI and the Financial Markets

(SGS Subscription required) • As a Weakening Threatens Fed Policy, Watch the Dollar!
• Headline Retail Sales Helped Put the Lie to the Happy Jobs Report; Recession Signal Remained Heavily in Place
• February Real Retail Sales Declined Month-to-Month by 0.22% (-0.22%), but the Monthly Decline was 0.48% (-0.48%), Net of Seasonal-Factor Reporting Inconsistencies
• With Three Consecutive Monthly Contractions in Place Real Sales Are on Solid Course for a First-Quarter Contraction, Increasingly, So Is the GDP
• Real Average Weekly Earnings on Track for Third-Consecutive Quarterly Decline, the Fifth Headline Quarter-to-Quarter Decline in the Last Six Quarters
• A Leading Indicator to Broad Economic Activity, February Real Annual Growth in Money Supply M3 Slowed to a Five-Month Low
• Unadjusted Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to 2.21% in February, from 2.07% in January, Annual PPI Inflation Rose to 2.77% from 2.69%, Well Shy of Common Experience, Still Dominated by Irregular Volatility in Adjusted, Monthly Gasoline Prices
• Fed’s Targeted 2.0% “Core” Inflation Held Range-Bound at 1.8% for the 11th Month

No. 939: February Employment and Unemployment, Private Surveying, M3, January Trade Deficit

(SGS Subscription required) • Worst-Ever Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Looms, Pushing Trade Policy and Dollar Concerns to the Fore
• Unstable Numbers Were Inconsistent with Related Economic Data, In an Otherwise Not Credible Employment and Unemployment Report
• Non-Comparable, Shifting Seasonal Adjustments Bloated Payroll Growth
• Payroll Jobs Jumped by 313,000, While the Count of the Household Survey Employed Jumped by 785,000, Yet the Number of Unemployed Rose, Too?
• February 2018 Unemployment Rates Changed Minimally Month-to-Month: U.3 Eased to 4.14% versus 4.15%, U.6 Rose to 8.24% from 8.19%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 21.8%
• Private Surveying of February Labor Conditions Showed Monthly Contractions, Annual Growth but No Economic Expansion
• Fed Policy to be Pressured by a Faltering and Dollar Issues
• February Money Supply M1, M2 and M3 and the Monetary Base Slowed Sharply

No. 938: Revised Fourth-Quarter 2017 GDP, January 2018 Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Headline Fourth-Quarter GDP Revision from 2.6% to 2.5% Was Just a 0.01% Rounding Difference, from 2.55% to 2.54%
• Fortuitously, a Sharp Downside Revision to the Goods Sector Was Just Offset by Revised Gains in the Structures and Nebulous Services Sectors
• First-Quarter 2018 GDP Increasingly Looks Like a Contraction
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Economic Expansion
• Boosted by Public Spending, January Real Construction Spending Still Dropped 0.2% (-0.2%) Month-to-Month, 0.2% (-0.2%) Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.0% (-21.0%)
• Faltering Annual Real Growth in Construction Spending Continued in a Pattern Last Seen Leading into the 2007 Recession