Category Archives: Offshore Hosting

Bullet Edition No. 6

(SGS Subscription required) • PENDING DOWNTURN IN ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
• New Recession Should Be Timed from November/Fourth-Quarter 2018 Peak; Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Faces Still Further Downside Revision; First- and Second-Quarter 2019 Real GDP Quarterly Contractions Loom
• Current, Positive Economic Expectations Should Drop Sharply, Following Heavily Negative Economic Releases, April 16th to 25th, Leading Into the Initial First-Quarter 2019 GDP Estimate on April 26th
• Series Facing Near-Term Negative Catch-Up Reporting and/or Intensifying, Negative First-Quarter Trends Include: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Freight Activity, Home Sales, Construction and the Trade Deficit

Bullet Edition No. 5

(SGS Subscription required) • Reporting-Quality Issues Mount With Shutdown Catch-Up Data
• Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Growth Slowed Sharply, With Further Downside Adjustments Pending in July 26th Benchmarking
• Industrial Production Benchmark Revision Patterns Suggested Still-Slower Fourth-Quarter and Near-Contraction First-Quarter Activity
• Contracting First- and Second-Quarter 2019 GDP Activity Likely Follows
• Housing Sector Remains In Deep Recession, Despite Government-Shutdown Disrupted Headline Numbers
• U.S. Continues to Weaken More Sharply and Quickly Than Widely Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession Triggered by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or So

Bullet Edition No. 4

(SGS Subscription required) • March 20th Federal Open Market Committee Held Interest Rates in Check, Indicating No Rate Hikes in 2019, in Line with Market Expectations
• The Fed Slowed its Pace of Projected Balance Sheet Liquidation
• The FOMC Lowered Its U.S. Economic Projections for 2019 and 2020, Albeit Still With Purportedly Healthy Growth
• The Fed Likely Has an Internal Recession Forecast, But Not One to Be Published, Other Than for an Obvious Coincident or Lagging Circumstance
• Nonetheless the U.S. Is Weakening More Sharply and Quickly Than Acknowledged, Signaling a Formal Recession That was Triggered Directly by Overly Aggressive FOMC Tightening and Rate Hikes of the Last Year or Two
• Latest Indication of an Accelerating Downturn Was In Freight Activity
• Where FOMC Meeting Results Broadly Matched Expectations, Stocks Rallied, Initially, Selling Off by the End of the Day; Gold and Silver Prices Spiked Amidst Heavy U.S. Dollar Selling, Which Also Boosted Oil Prices
• Those Late-Day Market Movements Likely Will Become the Trending Norm, As Evidence of the Deepening, Severe Economic Downturn Mounts Rapidly

Bullet Edition No. 3

(SGS Subscription required) • Consumption/Manufacturing Downturn Driven by Consumer Liquidity Woes
• Weakening Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization Were Consistent With a Pending Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP and Signaled High Odds of a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction
• These Data Reinforced Similar Negative Revisions Seen With Earlier Indicators, Including: Retail Sales, Housing, Construction and Payrolls
• February Housing Starts (March 26th), January Trade Deficit (March 27th) and An Eviscerated Annual Industrial Production Benchmarking (March 27th) Are the Last Major Reports, Prior to the March 28th Final GDP Estimate; There Is Limited Chance of a Reprieve
• The Is Weakening Sharply and Quickly, Due to the Overly Aggressive Federal Reserve Tightening and Rate Hikes
• Where Current U.S. Economic Activity Has Signaled a New Recession, Major Business Sectors, Such as Manufacturing and Construction, Never Recovered Fully from the Last One
• Accordingly, the March 20th FOMC Meeting Is Not Too Early to Address the Intensifying Business Collapse; Yet, the FOMC Is Expected to Sit on Its Hands

Bullet Edition No. 2

(SGS Subscription required) • Latest Retail Sales, Employment and Monetary Base Show Increasingly Negative Economic Trends
• January 2019 Retail Sales Signaled a Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP, Along With an Early Indication for a First-Quarter 2019 GDP Contraction
• Annual Growth in February 2019 Payrolls Slowed in a Manner Consistent With a Faltering First-Quarter
• February 2019 Saint Louis Fed Adjusted Monetary Base Declined Year-to-Year by 13.0% (-13.0%), Worst Showing Since 1937 Onset of Great Depression Second Down Leg
• Reporting of Broad U.S. Economic Activity Signals a New Recession, While Major Sectors Such as Manufacturing and Construction Never Recovered from the Last One
• The FOMC Should Be Feeling Increased Pressure to Ease, But Action Still Is Not Likely Next Week