Category Archives: Offshore Hosting

Special Commentary No. 985

(SGS Subscription required) • Second Consecutive, Negative Holiday Shopping Season Is Underway
• Collapsing October 2019 Production, Retail Sales and Freight Activity Suggested a Quarterly Contraction in Real Fourth-Quarter 2019 GDP; N.Y. and Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast Models Currently at 0.8% and 1.3%
• Amidst Increasingly Impaired Indicators of Economic and Systemic Health, the Flummoxed FOMC Should Be Easing Anew at Its December Meeting, Despite Current Protestations to Contrary
• FOMC Claim of Sustainable, Moderate Economic Growth Was Nonsense and Is Evaporating; Market Expectations Should Move Towards Expanded Easing, With Dollar Selling and Flight to Gold Likely to Intensify
• Consensus Economic Outlook Increasingly Should Tumble, Amidst Unfolding Negative Headline Activity, Combined With Pending, Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions to Key Series through July 2020
• Overstated Growth for Retail Sales, Manufacturing and Related Series, Reflected Data Disruptions, Distortions and Delays from the Partial Government Shutdown and Related Federal-Budget Constraints
• Market Recognition of the Unfolding Economic Downturn Continues to Mount, but Formal Recession Recognition Is Not Likely Before Late-2020

Flash Update No. 15

(SGS Subscription required) • An Unfolding, Deepening Recession
• Upside Revision to Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product, from 1.9% to 2.1%, Reflected No More Than an Involuntary Build-Up in Unsold Inventories
• Net of Inventory Change, Third-Quarter Final Sales Declined Minimally
• Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income, Theoretical GDP Equivalent, Revised Down to 0.9% from 1.8% Annualized Real Growth
• October 2019 Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Continued to Plunge, Despite Major Downside Revisions to Prior Months
• October CASS Freight Index Dropped Year-to-Year for the 11th Straight Month; Indicating a Deepening Downturn and Risks of a Fourth-Quarter GDP Contraction
• With the FOMC-Proclaimed Sustainable Moderate Expansion Evaporating, Expectations Should Shift in Favor of a More-Accommodative Fed

Flash Update No. 14

(SGS Subscription required) • Gold Should Continue to Outperform Stocks, Despite Recent Selling of Precious Metals and Stock-Market Rallies
• Consider that the S&P 500 Record High of Friday, November 8th, Was up by 5.5% from Its Record High of September 20, 2018
• In Contrast, London Gold of November 8th Closed up by 21.8% from September 20, 2018, Despite Recent Heavy Selling of Gold
• Continued Deterioration of Underlying Economic Fundamentals Should Accelerate in the Week Ahead, Dampening Economic Expectations
• An Ongoing Collapse in October Industrial Production, With Retail Sales Growth Running Below Headline Inflation, Should Challenge FOMC Claims of Sustainable Moderate Growth

Flash Update No. 13

(SGS Subscription required) • Explosive Growth in Federal Debt, Against Headline GDP, Is Out of Control, Threatening Domestic Financial Stability and the Survival of the Republic
• Having Triggered the Still-Deepening U.S. Recession, the FOMC Declared That Sustainable, Moderate U.S. Economic Growth Is in Place, Hinting That No Further Easing Was Needed — Nonsense!
• There Is No Sustainable Moderate Expansion in Place; Aggressive Federal Reserve Easing Still Was and Still Is Needed
• Major Downside Revisions to Economic Growth Loom, Including to the GDP
• The Fed Chair Touted the Third-Quarter GDP as Evidence of Stability, Yet, Just Two Days Later, Construction Spending Suggested the Headline Third-Quarter GDP Growth of 1.9% Should Have Been 1.7%, Possibly 1.4%
• Stronger-than-Expected Third-Quarter Payroll Growth Was Bloated by Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustment Revisions and Was Weak Year-to-Year, While Headline Unemployment Notched Higher Across-the-Board
• Flummoxed FOMC Has Resumed Its Balance Sheet Expansion In an Effort to Stabilize Systemic Liquidity

Flash Update No. 12

(SGS Subscription required) • Dangerous Times for the U.S. Dollar; Intensifying Flight to Precious Metals Likely
• Domestic Systemic Liquidity Issues Appear Serious: Third-Quarter 2019 Velocity of Money (M3) Is on Track for Its Sharpest Quarterly Drop Since the Depths of the Great Recession
• Liquidity Crisis Intensifies, Reflecting Deepening Financial-System Instabilities
• Used by Some at the Fed to Minimize FOMC Accommodation, Overly Optimistic Economic Assumptions Are Falling Apart
• Latest Headline Reporting, Revisions and Corrective Benchmarkings Increasingly Put the Lie to Current Federal Reserve Presumptions of Stable and Positive Economic Growth
• A Deepening Economic Downturn and Flummoxed Fed Suggest Intensified FOMC Accommodation at the October 29/30 Meeting, Reflected Partially in the October 11th Inter-Meeting Liquidity-Infusion Program