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Special Commentary No. 1441

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Economic Activity Was Faltering Before the Pandemic-Driven Collapse
• Pre-Pandemic Economic Troubles Were Driven Primarily by Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance
• March 2020 Economic Numbers Took the Initial Hit of the Pandemic Shutdown, Pulling First-Quarter 2020 GDP into an Annualized 5.0% (-5.0%) Contraction
• April 2020 Saw the Worst-Ever Monthly Collapses in Industrial Production, Nonresidential Construction, Payrolls and Retail Sales
• May 2020 Saw Dead-Cat Bounces in Monthly Production and Construction, Some Bottom-Bouncing in Payrolls and Rebounding Retail Sales; the Latter Two Series of Questionable Reporting Quality
• In Its 18th Straight Month of Annual Decline, the May 2020 Cass Freight Index® Notched Lower, Closing in on Its Record Trough of the Great Recession
• Second Year of Federal Reserve Reporting Delays Look to Exclude Long Overdue, Pre-Pandemic Downside Revisions to Industrial Production from the July 30th Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate and Annual Benchmark Revisions
• All Considered, Initial Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Holds on Track for the Deepest-Ever Annualized Quarterly Contraction, Down by Roughly 50% (-50%)
• Protracted Recovery Likely Will Be L-Shaped, Not V-Shaped

Flash Commentary No. 1440

(SGS Subscription required) • June FOMC Outlook: Deepening Near-Term Economic Collapse, Protracted Recovery
• Unlimited Money Creation and 0.00% to 0.25% Fed Funds Promised for Foreseeable Future
• May 2020 Money Supply M1, M2 and M3 Annual Growth Rates Accelerated to Record Highs
• Additional Explosive U.S. Government Deficit Spending and Debt Expansion Likely Follow
• Early Inflation-Danger Signal: Monthly May Producer Price Inflation for Goods Spiked at a Record Pace, Reflecting Shortage-Induced 44% Surge in Meat Prices
• Fed Chairman Powell Confirmed Second-Quarter 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product Likely Will Show Its Deepest Quarterly Contraction in History
• ShadowStats Forecast for Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Contraction Remains Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%) Annualized Quarter/Quarter, 16% (-16%) Year/Year
• Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing, Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts
• Federal Reserve Board Members Forecast Fourth-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Annual Decline of 6.5% (-6.5%), Worst in Modern Quarterly Reporting, Other Than for Likely Deeper, Intervening Second- and Third-Quarter Annual Contractions

Flash Commentary No. 1439

(SGS Subscription required) • May 2020 Payroll Gain and Unemployment Drop Were Not Credible
• Extreme Pandemic-Shutdown Disruptions to Labor Market Conditions, and Surveying of Same, Heavily Distorted Bureau of Labor Statistics Reporting
• Headline Employment and Economic Bottom Bouncing Likely Are Still a Month or Two Away
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product Remains on Track for Its Deepest Ever Annualized Contraction, Order of Magnitude 50% (-50%)
• Third- and Fourth-Quarter GDP Could See Some Bottom Bouncing, Depending on the Magnitude and Success of Reopening Efforts
• Recession Began Fourth-Quarter 2019, per the National Bureau of Economic Research, Recovery – Regaining the Pre-Recession Peak – Could Take Years, per ShadowStats
• FOMC June 10 Press Conference: Fed Funds Likely Will Hold at 0.00% to 0.25%; Economic Forecasts Probably Will Not Be Overly Optimistic

Special Commentary No. 1438

(SGS Subscription required) • Entire Economic Expansion Since the Great Recession Is at Risk of Collapse
• Driven by the Pandemic, U.S. Economic Plunge and Financial Market Turmoil Are Accompanied by Rapidly Mounting Risk of a Hyperinflationary Systemic Implosion
• The Fed Is Creating Unlimited Money, Liquidity and Bailouts, With the Federal Government Embarking on Unlimited Deficit Spending and Bailouts
• Annual Growth in Money Supply M1, M2 and the ShadowStats M3-Continuation Jumped to Historic Highs in April 2020, With Accelerating Expansion in Early-May
• Ratio of Collapsing GDP to Exploding Federal Deficit and Debt Shows Historic Low Ability of the U.S. to Cover U.S. Government Obligations
• GDP Inventory Changes Suggest Developing Shortages; Infinite Money Creation Chasing Too Few Goods Can Trigger Early, Rapid and Meaningful Inflation, As Seen Already With Meat and Other Foods
• Headline CPI-U Inflation in the United States from 1970, the Last Year of the Gold-Backed U.S. Dollar, to Date Has Been 561%
• Corrected for U.S. Government Understatement of the CPI-U ShadowStats Alternate CPI Inflation (1970 to Date) Has Been 4,257%
• Increase in the U.S. Dollar Price of Gold (1970 to Date) Has Been 4,314%
• Gold and Silver Prices Remain the Canary in the Coal Mine of Hyperinflation

Special Commentary No. 1437

(SGS Subscription required) • Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported
• April Retail Sales Fell the Most in Its 73-Year Reporting History
• Production and Manufacturing Tumbled the Most in Their 101-Year History
• Increasing New Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Insured Unemployed Confirm the Fell Further in May, Albeit Likely at a Moderating Pace
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real Annualized GDP Contraction of About 50% (-50%) Will Surpass Anything Ever Seen
• If There Are Meaningful Efforts to Reopen the , Third Quarter Activity Could Move Off Bottom in a Nascent L- or Shallow U-Shaped Recovery
• Benchmark Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Confirmed Major Downside Revisions Loom for Pre-Pandemic GDP Reporting
• U.S. Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic, Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice