Category Archives: Offshore Hosting

SPECIAL COMMENTARY No. 888: Political Stability versus the Economy and Financial Markets, Durable Goods Benchmarking, Consumer Liquidity

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Political-System Instability Would Threaten U.S. Dollar, Financial-Market and Economic Tranquility
• Downwardly-Benchmarked Durable Goods Orders and Shipments of Manufacturers Showed Weaker Historical Economic Activity and Potential Downside GDP Revisions
• Heavily-Stressed Consumer Liquidity Conditions Continue to Prevent Sustainable Economic Growth

No. 887: April Industrial Production and Housing Starts

(SGS Subscription required) • April Industrial Production Showed Solid Monthly Gains, Moving Off Bottom
• That Said, 112 Months of Continuing Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Worst String of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of Industrial Production
• It Tops the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment, and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression
• Still No Recovery: Activity Held Below Pre-Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.2% (-0.2%), Manufacturing Down by 5.6% (-5.6%) and Housing Starts Down by 48.4% (-48.4%)
• Annual Revisions to Housing Starts Pushed the Series into a Downtrend, Reflecting a Near-Term Hit to Multiple-Unit Starts
• 2016 Durable Goods Orders Just Took a 2.8% (-2.8%) Benchmarking Hit

No. 886: Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Consumer and Producer Prices

(SGS Subscription required) • Annual Real Retail Sales Growth Has Resettled at Recession-Signal Level
• First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; April Detail Was Mixed; Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continued to Intensify
• Headline CPI-U Inflation Rose by 0.17% in April 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.20% (Was 2.38%), with CPI-W at 2.14% (Was 2.35%) and ShadowStats at 10.0% (was 10.1%)
• April Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 62-Month High of 2.45%
• Moving Off Bottom, April Industrial Production Showed Solid Gains, but Production and Manufacturing Still Remained Below Their Pre-Recession Highs
• Declining April Housing Starts Held Shy of Pre-Recession Peak by 48.4% (-48.4%); First-Quarter Starts Revised to a Quarterly Contraction, Amidst Annual Revisions

No. 885: Numbers Games that Statistical Bureaus, Central Banks and Politicians Play

(SGS Subscription required) • April 2017 Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3
• Headline Employment/Unemployment Numbers Were Too Good
• Jobs Gain Boosted by Heavily-Distorted Seasonals and Unusually-Large Upside Biases
• Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Dropped to a 68-Month Low
• Last Time Annual Payroll Growth Declined to that Level, the Had Started Its Collapse into the 2007 Recession
• Household Survey Showed Shift from Part-Time to Full-Time Employment
• April Unemployment of 4.40% Was a 1-in-1,000 Shot; Could It Have Been Targeted?
• That Said, April Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.4% from 4.5%, U.6 Fell to 8.6% from 8.9% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.1% from 22.5%
• Those Were the Lowest, Headline Unemployment Rates for U.3 since May 2007, for U.6 since November 2007 and for ShadowStats since October 2010
• Nominal Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rebounded to 3.3% in April, Versus 3.1% February and March, Otherwise at a 39-Month Low

No. 884: March 2017 Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Real-World Employment

(SGS Subscription required) • April 2017 Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse
• First-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Narrowed Minimally versus What Had Been on Track for a Minimal Widening
• Despite a Decline in March, First-Quarter Construction Spending Surged with Massive, Upside Monthly Revisions to January and February Activity
• Real Construction Spending Remained 21.1% (-21.1%) Shy of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation