Category Archives: Offshore Hosting

Flash Update No. 11

(SGS Subscription required) • Federal Reserve Launches New Round of Quantitative Easing In All But Name
• At Least $60 Billion of Treasury Bill Purchases Per Month into Second-Quarter 2020
• Aimed at Rebuilding the Fed Balance Sheet
• Mounting Economic Weakness and Systemic Instabilities Still Leave Open a Possible 0.50% Rate Cut at October 29/30 FOMC
• Further Expansion of the Informal Quantitative Easing or Renewed Formal Quantitative Easing Is Likely

Flash Update No. 10

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Remains in an Intensifying Downturn
• Despite Headline Unemployment at a 50-Year Low of 3.52%, Broader Unemployment Measures and Employment Stress Levels Still Signal Deep Recession
• September Payrolls Gained 136,000 (181,000 Net of Revisions), While Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at a Low of 1.4%, Last Seen Going Into and Coming Out of the Great Recession
• August Trade Deficit Widened, With Negligible Impact on Third-Quarter GDP Outlook
• October FOMC Meeting Should See a 50-Basis-Point Rate Cut and Renewed Quantitative Easing
• September Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Jumped to a 10-Year High

Flash Update No. 9

(SGS Subscription required) • Sharply Elevated Risks of a Near-Term Stock-Market Crash Reflects a Confluence of Unusual Risk Factors, Either Developing or Already in Play:
• Market Perceptions of Meaningful Risk for the Removal from Office of the President Would Threaten U.S. Dollar, Financial-Market and Economic Stability, and Trigger Flight to Precious Metals
• Increasingly Unstable Global Political and Economic Conditions, Including Trade and Oil-Market Turmoil, a Still-Deepening and Unfolding U.S. Recession, Unstable Federal Reserve Policies
• The Onset of the 2019 Squirrelly Season
• 2018 Extreme Income Variance Held in Place at Levels That Tend to Lead Financial and Economic Crashes

Flash Update No. 8

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Cut Rates by the Expected Quarter Point, Amidst Ongoing, Nonsensical Hype of Near-Perfect Economic Conditions
• Broad U.S. Economic Activity Has Continued in a Deepening Downtrend, Amidst Mounting Downside Risks
• Major Downside Revisions to Headline Economic Activity Are Likely In Looming Benchmarkings
• Major, Disruptive Economic Risks and Financial-Market Turmoil Are at Hand
• More-Aggressive Fed Easing Is Likely at or Before the October 30th FOMC, Including Expanded Quantitative Easing

Flash Update No. 7

(SGS Subscription required) • Weakening and Negatively Benchmarked Annual Payroll Growth Signaled Deepening Recession
• As Has Become Commonplace, Monthly Payroll Gains Continued to Disappoint Expectations, Despite Regular Relative Monthly Boosts from Downwardly Revised Prior-Month Activity
• August Headline Unemployment of 3.7% Held Just a Notch Above Its Historic Low, Yet Broader Unemployment Measures Jumped by 0.2% to 0.3% Amidst Deteriorating Employment Conditions
• Economic and Systemic Conditions Are Worse than Headlined, Where Government-Shutdown Bloated Data Have Been Enshrined, Temporarily
• Pending August Retail Sales and Production Should Disappoint Expectations
• The FOMC Needs to Cut Interest Rates More Aggressively Than the Quarter-Point Being Suggested for September 18th
• Fed Is Boosting Money Supply Growth; M3 Growth Strongest Since 2009
• FOMC Easing Should Intensify Shortly; Renewed Quantitative Easing Remains a Good Bet