Category Archives: Offshore Hosting

No. 924: November Labor, Private Surveying and M3, October Trade Deficit and Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Private Surveying of November Labor Conditions Showed Continuing Annual Contraction and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• Still-Heavily-Distorted, November Unemployment Rates Notched Minimally Higher: U.3 Rose to 4.12% versus 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 7.96% from 7.91%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.7% from 21.6%
• Hurricane-Warped Unemployment and Employment Household-Survey Details Face Near-Term Corrections with the January 5th Benchmark Revisions
• Low-Level Annual Payroll Growth Continued to Signal New Recession • Seasonal-Adjustment Gimmicks Bloated Headline Payroll Gains, where Unadjusted Payrolls Revised Lower but Adjusted Levels Revised Higher; Payroll-Survey Benchmark Revisions Loom for February 2nd
• Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Early Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007
• October 2017 Nominal Balance of Payments Trade Deficit Increased by 8.6% versus September 2017, by 13.1% versus October 2016
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 22.0% (-22.0%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Annual Decline, as Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• Amidst Expectations of a December 13th FOMC Rate Hike, November 2017 M3 Annual Growth Eased Back to 4.6% from 4.8% in October, as Monetary-Base Annual Growth Jumped to a Four-Year High of 8.1%

No. 923: Revised Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), October Freight Index, New-Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • Third-Quarter 2017 Real Per Capita Take-Home Pay (Disposable Personal Income) Contracted at an Annualized Pace of 0.29% (-0.29%) versus Second-Quarter 2017
• That Was on Top of Downside Revisions to Second-Quarter Real Disposable Income, Which Reflected More-Substantive Information from Bureau of Labor Statistics Surveying
• Such Supports Neither a Booming Nor a Soaring Consumer Outlook
• Consumer Surveying, Driven by a Headline Faux-Economic Boom in the Press (Hurricane-Bloated Activity), Remained Strongest Since Collapsing into the 2001 Recession
• Second Estimate of Real Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Revised to 3.30% (Previously 2.99%), versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter 2017
• Initial Estimate of Third-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) at 3.47%, versus Second-Quarter at 2.77%; Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) at 2.53%, versus a Downwardly-Revised Second-Quarter of 2.28% (Previously 2.89%)
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Continue to Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion
• October 2017 Advance Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened Sharply, Suggesting a Potential Early Hit to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• With Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Still Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Highs, Respectively by 50.7% (-50.7%) and 24.6% (-24.6%), Six-Month Smoothed Home Sales Continued in Low-Level, Faltering Stagnation

No. 922: October 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods, Existing-Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • Market Irrationality and Vulnerability Amidst Expectations for a Booming in 2018
• Hurricane-Disruptions Boosted Recent Headline Economic Activity, With Continued Upside Impact on October 2017 Durable Goods Orders
• Nonetheless, Orders Contracted Both Before and After Consideration of Inflation and Volatile Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Real Orders Remained Down by 11.6% (-11.6%) from Recovering Pre-Recession Peak • Monthly Gain of 2.0% in October Existing-Home Sales Included a Downside Revision to September Activity and Some Hurricane Recovery, Along With a Year-to-Year Sales Decline of 0.9% (-0.9%)
• With Monthly Activity Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High by 24.6% (-24.6%), Smoothed Existing-Home Sales Continued in Low-Level, Faltering Stagnation

No. 921: October 2017 Industrial Production, New Residential Construction

(SGS Subscription required) • Hurricane-Boosted October 2017 Industrial Production Recovered Its 2007 Pre-Recession High for a Second Time, At Least Briefly
• Nonrecurring Surge in Headline Production Growth Ranged from a Return to Normal Operations to the Manufacturing of Replacements for Storm-Damaged Automobiles
• Showing a Record 118 Months of Continuous Non-Expansion, the Dominant Manufacturing Sector of Production Remained
Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 4.7% (-4.7%)
• Regularly-Volatile Housing Starts and Building Permits Surged in October, Including Some Temporary Hurricane-Driven Boost
• Housing Starts Are Shy of Recovering Their Pre-Recession High by 43.2% (-43.2%), Building Permits Still Are Shy by 42.7% (-42.7%)

No. 920: October 2017 Retail Sales, Consumer and Produce Price Indices

(SGS Subscription required) • Outlook for U.S. Economic and Financial-Market Activity Continues to Darken
• That Former Malarial Swamp on the Potomac Offers a Tax Bill Penalizing U.S. Tax Payers with the First Formal Use of the Chained-CPI-U
• Unwinding Hurricane Impact Softened October CPI Inflation
• October CPI-U Monthly Inflation Slowed to 0.11% (Was 0.55%) Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.04% (Was 2.23%), with CPI-W at 2.05% (Was 2.31%) and ShadowStats at 9.8% (Was 10.0%)
• A Nonsense October PPI Surge Was Due to Collapsing Gasoline Prices
• October 2017 Final-Demand PPI Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.44% Pulled Annual Gain to a 69-Month High of 2.79%, from 2.62% in September 2017
• Unrevised Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined Minimally in Third-Quarter, on Early Track for a Meaningful Fourth-Quarter 2017 Contraction
• Storm Impact Still Boosted October Retail Sales, While Long-Range, Non-Recovering and Downtrending Economic Trends Remained in Play •