Category Archives: Offshore

No. 950: April Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Freight and Benchmark Revisions

(SGS Subscription required) • Benchmark Revisions Knocked Off Roughly Two-Percent Real Growth from Manufacturers’ Shipments and Related Economic Activity Since 2015
• Monthly Gains of 0.7% in Both March and April 2018 Industrial Production Were a Decline of 0.1% (-0.1%) and a Gain of 0.1%, Net of Prior Months’ Revisions
• First-Quarter Industrial Production and Manufacturing Revised Sharply Lower: Production Now 0.43% (-0.43%) Below Fourth-Quarter 2014 Peak (Previously Recovered); First-Quarter Manufacturing Now 6.07% (-6.07%) Below Its Pre-Recession Peak
• April Manufacturing Hit a Record 124 Months of Economic Non-Expansion
• April Freight Index Rose to a Post-Recession High, With Strong Annual Growth, Albeit Off Peak, with Activity Still Shy by 6.65% (-6.65%) of a Full Recovery
• April Real Retail Sales Gained 0.08% in the Month, 2.20% Year-to-Year, With Likely Major Downside Benchmark Revisions Looming on May 25th
• Despite Upside Revisions to February and March Real Retail Sales, the Somewhat-Narrowed First-Quarter Contraction of 2.05% (-2.05%) Still Was Deepest Since the 2009 Depths of the Great Recession
• Given No Apparent Improvement in Reporting Quality, Annual Revisions to Nonsensically-Volatile Housing Starts Were Nil; Inconsistent Building Permits Revised Higher by 2.1% Only in 2017
• Starts and Permits Continued in Low Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation, Still Down by 43.4% (-43.4%) and 40.3% (-40.3%) from Pre-Recession Highs

No. 949: April Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings

(SGS Subscription required) • A Double-Whammy from Oil-Price-Driven Inflation: Surging Inflation Impairs Real Income, Liquidity and Economic Growth; Surging Prices Do Not Reflect Surging Economic Demand
• April 2018 Inflation-Adjusted, Real Average Weekly Earnings Fell for All Employees (Rose for Production and Supervisory); Quarterly Contractions Held in Place
• A Leading Indicator to Broad Economic Activity, April 2018 Real Annual Growth in Money Supply M3 Slowed to an Eight-Month Low
• Unadjusted Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to a 14-Month High of 2.46% in April 2018, Up from 2.36% in March 2018, Holding Well Shy of Common Experience
• “Core” CPI-U Inflation (Ex-Food and Energy) Held at 2.1% in April, Above the Fed’s 2.0% Target for a Second Straight Month
• April Annual PPI Inflation Eased to a 7-Month Low of 2.57%, Backing Off the 74-Month High of 3.03% Seen in March
• Nothing Like Massaged Inflation Numbers to Boost You into a Higher Tax Bracket

No. 948: April Labor Data, Private Labor and Income Surveys, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • New Private and Public Surveys Raise Serious Doubts as to the Quality and Significance of the Headline Economic Boom, Given Weakening Labor Conditions and Negligible Growth in Real Household Income
• Intensifying Labor-Market Stress in April 2018 Was More Consistent with Headline U.3 Unemployment at 10.4%, Instead of the New 17-Year Low of 3.9%
• April U.3 Eased to 3.93% from 4.07% in March, U.6 Declined to 7.79% from 8.00%, ShadowStats-Alternate Dropped to 21.5% from 21.7%, on Top of U.6 and U.3
• Headline Count of Employed in April Was Down from February by 34,000 (-34,000); Gaining Only 3,000 in the Month, Having Declined by 37,000 (-37,000) in March
• April Payroll-Jobs Count Rose by 164,000 (up 194,000 Net of Revisions), with Annual Growth at 1.55%, Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• First-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Widened versus Fourth-Quarter, Contrary to Initial First-Quarter 2018 GDP Reporting
• Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 20.9% (-20.9%), Down by 2.4% (-2.4%) in March 2018, by 0.6% (-0.6%) Year-to-Year, Despite Large Upside Revisions to January and February Activity
• Annual Money Supply Growth Weakened in April for All Measures, Along with a Contracting Monetary Base: Declining Real Liquidity Growth Threatens the

No. 947: First-Quarter GDP, March New-Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • The Consumer Suffered Heavily in First-Quarter 2018, Reflected in Contracting Goods Consumption and Unchanged Residential Investment
• It Is the U.S. Consumer Who Fundamentally Drives the , Not the Healthcare, Insurance or Financial-Services Industries
• Consumer Liquidity Conditions Bode Poorly for Near-Term Activity
• First-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized Real Growth Slowed to an Upwardly-Gimmicked 2.32% from 2.89% in Fourth-Quarter 2017, Amidst Unusual Inflation- and Trade-Deficit-Reporting Patterns
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Show No Economic Expansion
• Some Pick-Up in the Velocity of Broader Money Supply
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, Indicated as Worst Since Third-Quarter 2006, Backed Off Its Worst-Ever Reading
• First-Quarter Real Durable Goods Orders Were Flat, Ex-Commercial Aircraft
• First-Quarter 2018 Existing-Home Sales Fell by an Annualized 6.1% (-6.1%) in the Quarter, by 1.7% (-1.7%) Year-to-Year, Despite Gains in Wildly-Unstable and Volatile New-Home Sales Reporting
• Major Downside Benchmark Revisions Loom for Series Such as New Orders for Durable Goods and Retail Sales, and a Widened the Trade Deficit; Beware the GDP Comprehensive Benchmark Revision in July

No. 946: March Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Freight Index, Housing Starts, GDP Outlook

(SGS Subscription required) • First-Quarter 2018 Real GDP Should Slow Much More Sharply Than Expected
• Nothing Supports the Existing Purported Post-Recession GDP Expansion of 15.3%, Including Headline Production and Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Construction, Payroll Employment and Civilian Employed, Trade Deficit, Credit Growth, Freight Activity and Domestic Petroleum Consumption
• April Consumer Outlook Took a Hit, Amidst Faltering Earnings and Credit
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Retail Sales Contraction of 2.6% (-2.6%) Was Deepest Since Depths of the Great Recession
• Real Sales Growth Backed Off from Fourth-Quarter Natural-Disaster Boosts, Yet, Annual Real Growth Also Fell Deep into Recession-Warning Territory, versus First-Quarter 2017, Which Was Not Disaster-Impacted
• March Freight Index Continued Higher with Strong Annual Growth, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak Activity by 7.4% (-7.4%)
• Given a Record 41 Quarters, 123 Months of Economic Non-Expansion, March Manufacturing Still Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 5.4% (-5.4%)
• Continuing in Nonsensical Monthly Booms and Busts, March 2018 Housing Starts Gained 1.9% on Top of Sharp Upside Revisions to February, Still in Low Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation and Shy by 42.0% (-42.0%) of Beginning Its Economic Expansion