Category Archives: Offshore

No. 962: Second-Quarter GDP and the Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions – First Cut

(SGS Subscription required) • GDP Benchmark Revisions Showed the Economic Collapse into 2009 to be Shallower, With the Recovery and Expansion Somewhat Faster and Stronger
• A Number of Pre-Announced Gimmicks, and Redefinitions Helped to Mute Slowing Growth, Such as “Seasonally Adjusting” Seasonal Adjustments
• Underlying Downside Benchmark Revisions to Series Such as Industrial Production Had Limited Effect, Although Revised Trade Data Had Visible Impact
• Second-Quarter 2018 Annualized Real GDP Growth Boomed by 4.06%, Versus a Revised 2.22% (Previously 1.99%) in First-Quarter 2018, a Revised 2.29% (Previously 2.89%) in Fourth-Quarter 2017 and a Revised 2.82% (Previously 3.16%) in Third-Quarter 2017
• Nothing Like Avoiding a Downside Revision to Headline First-Quarter Activity by Lowering Growth in the Preceding Periods
• Second-Quarter 2018 Real GDP Stood at 17.4% Above Its Pre-Recession Peak
• Yet, No Major Underlying Economic Series or Broad Employment Measure Comes Close to Confirming Such Growth in this Most-Heavily Gimmicked of U.S. Statistics

No. 961: June Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Housing Starts and Sales, Freight

(SGS Subscription required) • July 27th GDP Benchmark Revisions Offer a Likely Hit to Historical Growth, Could Shift Relative Second-Quarter versus First-Quarter Patterns, Offering a Surprise to Booming Second-Quarter Expectations
• June 2018 Housing Starts, Building Permits and New- and Existing-Home Sales All Dropped Sharply Month-to-Month, With Downtrending Six-Month Moving Averages
• Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks, June Activity Was Down for Housing Starts by 48.4% (-48.4%), Single-Unit Starts by 52.9% (-52.9%), Multiple-Unit Starts by 30.0% (-30.0%), Building Permits by 43.7% (-43.7%), Existing-Home Sales by 26.0% (-26.0%) and New-Home Sales by 54.6% (-54.6%)
• June Manufacturing Jumped, Reversing Some of May’s Supply-Disrupted Slump, Still Holding Shy by 5.6% (-5.6%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High, Setting a Record 42-Consecutive Quarters (126 Months) of Economic Non-Expansion
• Monthly Real Retail Sales Jumped in June, Boosted by Inconsistent Seasonal Adjustments
• Real Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Was Tepid in June, with the Aggregate Series Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 9.9% (-9.9%)
• June Freight Index Annual Growth Backed Off Recent Surge; Current Activity Still Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of a Recovering Pre-Recession High

No. 960: June 2018 Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings

(SGS Subscription required) • June 2018 CPI-U and PPI Annual Inflation Rates Jumped to Respective New 75- and 79-Month Highs of 2.87% and 3.37%
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Stalled at 0.0% in June 2018, Unchanged both Month-to Month and Year-to-Year
• Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Woes Have Intensified Sharply, Driven by Fed Tightening and by Soaring, Oil-Supply-Distorted Inflation
• Exploding Consumer Inflation Does Not Reflect Surging U.S. Economic Demand
• Economic Prospects Dim, as the Consumer Outlook Continues to Weaken