Category Archives: Offshore

No. 969-B: 2017 Annual Real Median Household Income and Income Dispersion, August 2018 Labor Detail

(SGS Subscription required) • Extreme Income Variance Signaled Record Levels of Financial Stress in 2017, Ultimately Foreshadowing Severe Economic and Stock-Market Turmoil
• Headline All-Time High in Real 2017 Household Income Was Nonsense
• Consistently Surveyed and Reported, Real Annual Median Household Income Has Yet to Recover Its High Levels of 1999 and 2000
• Still, July 2018 Monthly Real Median Household Income Showed Its Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain
• August Household-Survey Employed Dropped by 423,000 (-423,000), while the Headline August Payroll Gain of 201,000 Was 151,000, Net of Revisions
• August U.3 Unemployment Edged Lower to 3.85%, from 3.87% in July; Broader U.6 Unemployment Fell to 7.39% from 7.54%. On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Declined to 21.2% from 21.3%
• Sharply Intensifying Labor-Market Stresses Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low

No, 969-A: August Labor Numbers and Money Supply M3, July Trade Deficit and Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Federal Reserve Liquidity Squeeze Has Intensified Sharply, Threatening to Smother Any Nascent Economic Recovery
• Annual Real Money Supply Growth Has Slowed Anew, Annual Nominal Monetary Growth Base Is Plummeting
• August 2018 Private Labor-Market Surveying Showed Weakening Activity
• August Household-Survey Employed Dropped by 423,000 (-423,000), with Full-Time Employed Down by 444,000 (-440,000)
• Headline August Payroll Gain of 201,000 Was 151,000, Net of Revisions
• August U.3 Unemployment Edged Lower to 3.85%, from 3.87% in July; Broader U.6 Unemployment Fell to 7.39% from 7.54%. On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Declined to 21.2% from 21.3%
• Labor-Market Stresses Increased Sharply, Consistent with Headline Unemployment Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low
• July Nominal Balance-of-Payments and Real-Merchandise Trade Deficits Deteriorated Sharply, Likely to Reverse Trade Boosts to Second-Quarter GDP
• July Real Construction Spending Continued Dropping Month-to-Month, Slowing Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 20.5% (-20.5%)

No. 968b: U.S. Economic Reality, Second-Quarter GDP, Second-Cut Comprehensive GDP Revisions

(SGS Subscription required) • Statistical Deception Bloats Headline U.S. Economic Growth
• “Pollyanna Creep” Has Added 18.1% to Nominal Gross Domestic Product Since 1980
• Second-Quarter Real GDP Growth Rose to 4.23% from 2.22% in First Quarter, While “GDP Equivalent” Gross Domestic Income Sank to 1.81% from 3.90%
• Official Second-Quarter Real GDP Stood 17.5% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, Yet It Held Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of Recovering that Peak, When Corrected for the Deliberate Understatement of GDP Inflation
• Underlying Economic Reality Reflects Activity That Is Off Bottom, but Well Shy of Headline Expansion, in Fragile Mixed-Growth Stability as Confirmed by Better-Quality Broad Economic Measures
• Yet, Private Labor Market Surveying, the Real Merchandise Trade Deficit and Real Construction Spending All Faltered in the Latest Reporting
• Federal Reserve Policies Threaten Any Nascent Economic Recovery, as Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Conditions Tighten Meaningfully
• GDP Benchmarking Pivoted on the Fourth-Quarter 2007 Business-Cycle Peak; Prior Activity Shifted Lower; Subsequent Activity Shifted Increasingly Higher
• Benchmarking Showed the Headline Economic Collapse into 2009 to be Shallower, the Headline Recovery and Expansion to be Somewhat Faster and Stronger, Along with Follow-Through Distortions Inflating the Latest Headline GDP Growth

No. 968-Advance: Second-Quarter 2018 Revised GDP, Initial GDI and GNP

(SGS Subscription required) • A Mixed Consumer Outlook Was Signaled in August, with Optimism Broadly At or Off High Levels Last Seen Crashing into the 2001 Recession, Before 9/11
• Second-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Inflation-Adjusted Real Growth Revised to an Annualized 4.23% (Previously 4.06%), versus a First-Quarter 2.22%
• Yet, Growth in Second-Quarter “GDP Equivalent” Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Came in at 1.81%, Down from a First-Quarter 3.90%
• Broader Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Real Growth (GDP Net of International Flows in Interest and Dividend Payments), Was an Initial 4.07%, versus 2.20% in the First Quarter
• Headline GDP Now Stands 17.46% Above Its Pre-Recession Peak, but No Major Underlying Economic Series or Broad Employment Measure Confirms Such a Level of Recovery in this Most-Heavily Gimmicked of U.S. Statistics
• Better Quality, Broad Economic Measures Suggest that Real-World Activity Has Yet to Recover Its Pre-Recession High
• The ShadowStats Real GDP, Corrected for Understated Inflation, Continued Off Bottom, Growing Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Yet It Remained Well Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Levels

No. 967: July Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Payroll Benchmarking

(SGS Subscription required) • Residual Squirreling Instincts in Investors Can Overturn Markets
• Housing Sector Has Entered an Intensifying, Renewed Downturn, Amidst Mounting Stresses on Consumer Liquidity
• Weakening July 2018 New- and Existing-Home Sales and Residential Construction Continued to Disappoint Market Expectations for Activity in All Sectors, With Deepening, Downtrending Six-Month Moving Averages
• Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks, July Sales Activity Was Down for Existing Homes by 26.7% (-26.7%) and for New Homes by 54.9% (-54.9%)
• On Top of Downside Revisions, Real Growth in July New Orders for Durable Goods Declined for Total Orders, Slowed for Orders Ex-Commercial Aircraft
• Initial Annual Payroll Benchmark Estimate of a 43,000 Upside Revision for 2018 Was Smaller than the 66,000 Regular Monthly Revision Made to June 2018 Payrolls
• Continued Fed Tightening, Deteriorating Systemic and Consumer Liquidity, Unexpected Economic Weakness, Intensifying Political Discord: Beware the Onset of Squirrelly Season!