Category Archives: Offshore

No. 982: Stock Market, December 2018 Employment and Unemployment, Monetary Conditions

(SGS Subscription required) • One Cannot Fool Main Street, U.S.A., With Media Hype; Average Person Has a Stable, Solid Opinion as to How He or She Is Doing
• Federal Reserve Has Not Eased Its Tightening Policies, and the Continues to Turn to the Downside, Sinking Anew
• Benchmarked Headline December 2018 U.3 Unemployment Jumped by 0.2%, Now Rising Since September 2018, with the Benchmarked Broader U.6 and ShadowStats Unemployment Measures Uptrending
• Intense Labor-Market Stress in December Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not off a Record Low
• An Effective Reporting Fraud by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, December Payrolls Jumped 312,000, Up by 370,000 Net of November Revisions, Boosted by Inconsistently Published Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions
• FOMC-Driven Consumer Slowdown Signaled Onset of a New Recession, as the December 2018 Nominal Monetary Base Dropped to a Sixty-Six Month Low
• Effects of Ongoing Federal Reserve Tightening Increasingly Have Pummeled Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction Activity
• Government Shutdown Has Squelched Negative Economic News from Trade Deficits, Retail and Auto Sales, Construction and Real Estate Activity and Likely, Also, as to a Weakening Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP
• Stock-Market Sell-Off Is Far from Finished

No. 981: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders, Residential Construction, GDP and Stocks

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC-Driven Consumer Slowdown Signals Onset of a New Recession, as Nominal Monetary Base Drops to a Five-Year Low
• Effects of Ongoing Federal Reserve Tightening Increasingly Have Pummeled Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction Activity
• Intensifying Consumer-Liquidity Squeeze Reflected in Downside Revisions to Previously Estimated Auto Sales, Housing and Third-Quarter GDP
• Third-Quarter 2018 Final Sales (GDP Net of an Increasing Inventory Buildup) Slowed to a Revised 1.03% (Initially 1.43%) from a Second-Quarter 5.33%
• Annual Growth in November Freight Activity Plunged to a Two-Year Low
• November 2018 Residential Construction and Sales Continued in Deepening Downtrends, Well Shy of Ever Recovering Pre-Recession Highs
• November Manufacturing in Record 131st Straight Month of Non-Expansion, Still Shy by 4.7% (-4.7%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak; Unlike Anything Ever Seen in the 100-Year History of the Production Series
• 2008 Banking-System Insolvency Arose Under the Watchful Eye of the Banking-System-Owned Federal Reserve
• Subsequent FOMC Actions in the Last Decade Centered on Propping the Banks, Not on Restoring a Healthy
• Stock Market Turmoil Has Begun to Respond to the Intensifying Effects of Financial-System Distortions and Instabilities

No. 979: November Labor Numbers, Consumer and Producer Price Indices, October Trade Deficit, FOMC

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Fumbled, Boosting Rates and Promising Further Rate Hikes, While Liquidity-Starved Consumer Activity Already Suggests a New Recession
• Pace of November 2018 Payroll Jobs Growth Slowed to 155,000 (143,000 net of revisions), Against a downwardly revised monthly gain of 237,000 (previously 250,000) in October
• November U.3 Unemployment Dropped to a Record Low 3.67%, from 3.74% in October, While Broader U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.57% from 7.43% and ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Notched Higher to 21.3% from 21.2%
• Intense Labor-Market Stress Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not a Record Low
• November Real Average Weekly Earnings Dropped With a Declining Work Week
• October 2018 U.S. Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened, and the Third-Quarter 2018 Worst-Ever Trade Deficit Deepened in Revision, with Negative Implications for the U.S. Dollar and for Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Strength in Recent Economic Headline Activity Commonly Was Boosted by Downside Revisions to Prior Reporting
• Collapsing Oil and Gasoline Prices Slowed November Headline CPI Inflation, Yet They Had the Net Effect of Boosting the Nonsensically Defined PPI Inflation
• Non-Seasonal, Extreme Monthly Swings in Gasoline Prices Have Disrupted any Consistent Trend in Monthly Year-to-Year CPI Inflation

Hyperinflation Watch No. 4

(SGS Subscription required) • Intensifying Risks of Financial-Market and Systemic Instabilities
• November U.S. Monetary Base Declined at an Extreme Annual Pace of 12% (-12%); As Seen Similarly With Federal Reserve Policy Errors of 1936/1937 That Helped Trigger the Second Down Leg of the Great Depression
• Current FOMC Tightening Is Triggering an Unfolding New Recession
• Sell-Off in Equities Likely Has Just Begun
• Watch for Heavy Selling of the U.S. Dollar and Heavy Buying of Gold as Portents of Extreme Political and Financial-Market Turmoil and Systemic Instability