Category Archives: Offshore

Flash Update No. 18

(SGS Subscription required) • December 2019 Annual Payroll Growth Dropped to a Two-Year Low, Amidst Faltering Production and Retail Sales Employment
• Jobs Growth Signaled a Weakening , in Advance of Negative Payroll Benchmark Revisions Due Next Month
• Yet, Headline Unemployment Hit a Current Series Low of 3.50%, While Labor-Market Stress Continued Running at Recession Levels
• Against Earlier Data Series, December 2019 Unemployment of 3.50% Was the Lowest Since 3.49% in June 1969, 50-Plus Years Ago
• Annual Benchmark Revisions to Household Survey Seasonal Adjustments Had Negligible Effect on Headline Reporting of Unemployment and Labor-Market Stress
• December 2019 Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Eased Minimally to 8.4%, Just off Its November 2019 Ten-Year High of 8.6%
• Annual Growth Rates of 6.9% and 7.2% in December M1 and M2 Notched Lower by 0.2% (-0.2%) from November Levels

Flash Update No. 17

(SGS Subscription required) • War Risks Can Shift Underlying Financial and Economic Resources, Some to the Downside, Some to the Plus Side
• Current Extremes of Fiscal and FOMC Imbalances and Policies Threaten Massive Systemic Instabilities, Ranging from the and Financial Markets, to Domestic Inflation
• Last Time the Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio Topped 70%, Let Alone the Currently Unsustainable 107%, Was in 1944/1945, at the End of World War II; What Happens Now if the U.S. Goes to War?
• FOMC Banking-System Mismanagement and Bailout, and Coincident Federal and Corporate Policies Aimed at Shifting Domestic Production Offshore Have Weakened Potential Domestic Manufacturing of Defense Goods
• At the Same Time, War-Time Production Needs Would Tend to Reactivate Some Key Manufacturing in the United States
• Congress, the Executive Branch and the Federal Reserve All Are Culpable, in Pursuing Short-Sighted and Negligent Domestic Economic Policies

Special Bullet Edition No. 18

(SGS Subscription required) • Before European Markets Shut Down for the Holiday, New Years Eve Flight from the U.S. Dollar and Stocks into Gold Foreshadowed U.S. Market Trends Likely to Unfold in the Year Ahead
• Heavily Touted Perfect and Financial Markets Face Deepening Turmoil in 2020, Thanks Largely to Federal Reserve Gross Negligence
• Signals of Deteriorating Economic Conditions Have Intensified, With Standardly Happy Headline Numbers, Such as Consumer Income, Faltering Anew
• As the Budget Deficit Explodes Amidst Uncontained Federal Spending, the U.S. Government Faces Long-Range Insolvency and/or Hyperinflation
• The Congress, the Executive Branch and the Federal Reserve All Are Culpable, Twiddling Their Thumbs in Complacent Silence

Bullet Edition No. 17

(SGS Subscription required) • The Faltering and Not-So-Perfect Can Be Attributed to the Fed
• With Stocks Closing Out 2019 at or Near All-Time Highs, Holding Precious Metals in the Same Period Still Outperformed the Major Stock Indices Against Their 2018 Highs
• FOMC Manipulation of the Monetary Base and Interest Rates Have Been the Dominant Drivers and Inhibitors of U.S. Economic Activity, Since the 2008 Banking-System Collapse and Federal Reserve Bailout
• Unprecedented in 101 years of Reporting, U.S. Manufacturing Just Completed Twelve Years, 144 Straight Months and Counting, of Economic Non-Expansion, Never Recovering Its Pre-Great-Recession or Pre-Banking-Collapse Peak Activity
• That Said, Manufacturing, Durable Goods Orders and Freight Activity, All Are in Record Non-Expansion, Showing a Deepening, New Recession
• Twelve Months Real New Orders for Durable Goods to November 2019 Was Down Year-to-Year Versus the 12 Months to November 2018, Both Before and After Consideration of Volatile Commercial Aircraft Orders
• Still Shy by 20% to 50% of Ever Recovering Pre-Recession Peak Activity, Elements of the Housing Sector Continue to Show Signs of Low-Level Stabilization

Bullet Edition No. 16

(SGS Subscription required) • Pending Retail Payroll Revisions Show an Unfolding Recession; November Real Retail Sales Suggested a Fourth-Quarter 2019 Contraction, Signaling a Second Consecutive Troubled Holiday Shopping Season
• November Monthly Growth in Real Average Weekly Earnings for All Employees Held Unchanged at 0.0% for the Third Straight Month
• The Fed Knows There Is No Sustainable, Moderate U.S. Economic Growth, Contrary to Its Happy Hype, Yet the FOMC Is Unable to Cut Interest Rates
• FOMC Will Continue to Meet Any Unexpected Funding Needs (QE) of Its Parent Banking System, to Maintain Systemic and Market Stability and Liquidity
• Where the FOMC Fully Understands the Problems In the Overnight Funding Markets, It Does Not Want to Go Public with Them
• FOMC Has Not Been Open About the Major Conflicts and Issues It Faces, Suggesting Significant Systemic, Financial and Economic Crises May Be at Hand
• Federal Reserve 2008 Bailout of the Failed Banking System Appears Only to Have Bought Time; Not to Have Restored a Workable, Stable Financial System, and Not to Have Allowed a Full, Sustainable Economic Recovery for Main Street, U.S.A.
• Week Ahead: Some Headline Numbers Will Benefit from the End of the GM Strike