Category Archives: Offshore

Flash Economic Commentary No. 1445

(SGS Subscription required) • Mounting, Fundamental Risks for Hyperinflation and Systemic Instabilities Promise New Highs for Gold and Silver Prices, Irrespective of the August 11th Sell-Offs
• Historic GDP Collapse Wiped Out the Last Five Years of Economic Growth
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Plunged at an Unprecedented, Albeit Consensus, Annualized Quarterly Pace of 32.9% (-32.9%), Down Year-to-Year by 9.5% (-9.5%)
• Given Limited-Quality Hard Data, Has Headline Reporting Turned to the Consensus?
• Benchmarked GDP Received a Boost from New Trade-Deficit Reporting Gimmicks
• Nonetheless, Rebound from the Pandemic-Driven Economic Collapse Is Faltering
• L-Shaped Economic Recovery Has Begun to Take Form, as July Jobs and Unemployment Improvement Decelerated, Amidst Continuing Pandemic-Disrupted Surveying and Reporting Quality Issues
• Labor-Market Stress Has Intensified as Unemployment Claims Gyrate Around Still-in-Depression Levels; Fed Sees Early Indications of Renewed Pullback in Consumer Activity
• U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating Rumblings Mount as Congress and the White House Negotiate a Second Round of Massive, Expanded Deficit Spending
• Stalled Recovery Will Generate Even Greater Spending and Monetary Excesses
• Federal Reserve Record Money Supply Expansion Continues, Despite Benchmarked Money Numbers Showing Minimally Slower Growth

Economic Commentary No, 1444

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Continues to Hold Its Extraordinary Interest-Rate and Liquidity Policies in Place for Duration of the Pandemic-Disruption, Amidst Signs of Renewed Slowing in Economic Activity
• Exploding Gold and Silver Prices, and a Weakening U.S. Dollar Are Sounding the Hyperinflation Klaxon
• Major Inflation and Systemic Instabilities Lie Ahead
• Reporting of Deepest-Ever GDP Decline Looms on July 30th
• Annualized 49.1% (-49.1%) Quarterly Plunge in Household Survey Employed Was Consistent With a Real Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized Collapse of 50% (-50%) and Year-to-Year Drop of 16.1% (-16.1%)
• Potential Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized 20% Rebound Still Would Be Down 12.7% (-12.7%) Year-to-Year, Rivaling Great Depression Depths and Post-World War II Readjustment
• Economic Recovery Will Be Protracted
• Not Credible! June Real Retail Sales Recovered Pre-Pandemic Levels, Contrary to Better-Quality Numbers; Yet Second-Quarter Real Sales Still Fell at an Annualized 24.2% (-24.2%) Pace
• June Cass Freight Index® Fell 17.8% (-17.8%) Year-to-Year, Its 19th Consecutive Annual Decline
• Second-Quarter Industrial Production Annualized Plunge of 42.6% (-42.6%) Was Worst Since the Post World-War II Production Readjustment

Flash Commentary No. 1443

(SGS Subscription required) • Previewing Special Economic Commentary No. 1444
• Soaring Gold and Silver Prices, and a Weakening U.S. Dollar Increasingly Foreshadow Potential Hyperinflation and Systemic Instabilities
• Reporting of Deepest-Ever GDP Decline Looms on July 30th
• Annualized 49.1% (-49.1%) Quarterly Plunge in Household Survey Employed Was Consistent With a Real Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized Collapse of 50% (-50%) and Year-to-Year Drop of 16.1% (-16.1%)
• Potential Third-Quarter 2020 GDP Annualized 20% Rebound Still Would Be Down 12.7% (-12.7%) Year-to-Year, Rivaling Great Depression Depths and Post-World War II Readjustment
• Economic Recovery Will Be Protracted

Flash Commentary No. 1442

(SGS Subscription required) • Soaring Gold and Silver Prices Reflect Intensifying Investor Concerns for Inflation Risk and Systemic Instabilities
• Rising Gold Prices Suggest Central Banks and Treasury Departments Are Not Doing Their Jobs; Any Related Market-Dampening Interventions Should Prove to Be Short-Lived
• Annual Growth in June 2020 Money Supply Measures Set Record Highs; Consider That June Money Supply M1 Year-to-Year Growth Hit 37%
• June 2020 Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar Just Turned Negative Year-to-Year
• July 30th Second-Quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product Initial Reporting Should Show Unprecedented, Annualized Real Contraction of About 50% (-50%)
• Consensus Forecasts Are Centering on a More-Modest Record Plunge of 35% (-35%), Yet, Bottom Bouncing Headlines for Some April and May Numbers Were Not Reliable
• June and July Reopening Instabilities Threaten Hopes for a Meaningful, Nascent Upturn; Protracted Recovery Likely Will Be L-Shaped, Not V-Shaped
• First Full Second-Quarter 2020 Headline Reporting: Household Survey Employed Plunged at an Annualized Quarterly Pace of 49.1% (-49.1%), as Corrected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for Continuing Misclassification Errors
• May 2020 U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened Sharply, Signaling Second-Quarter GDP Trouble
• Both Collapsing May Exports and Imports Signaled a Collapsing Global

Special Commentary No. 1441

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Economic Activity Was Faltering Before the Pandemic-Driven Collapse
• Pre-Pandemic Economic Troubles Were Driven Primarily by Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance
• March 2020 Economic Numbers Took the Initial Hit of the Pandemic Shutdown, Pulling First-Quarter 2020 GDP into an Annualized 5.0% (-5.0%) Contraction
• April 2020 Saw the Worst-Ever Monthly Collapses in Industrial Production, Nonresidential Construction, Payrolls and Retail Sales
• May 2020 Saw Dead-Cat Bounces in Monthly Production and Construction, Some Bottom-Bouncing in Payrolls and Rebounding Retail Sales; the Latter Two Series of Questionable Reporting Quality
• In Its 18th Straight Month of Annual Decline, the May 2020 Cass Freight Index® Notched Lower, Closing in on Its Record Trough of the Great Recession
• Second Year of Federal Reserve Reporting Delays Look to Exclude Long Overdue, Pre-Pandemic Downside Revisions to Industrial Production from the July 30th Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate and Annual Benchmark Revisions
• All Considered, Initial Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Holds on Track for the Deepest-Ever Annualized Quarterly Contraction, Down by Roughly 50% (-50%)
• Protracted Recovery Likely Will Be L-Shaped, Not V-Shaped