Category Archives: Offshore

Special Commentary No. 1437

(SGS Subscription required) • Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported
• April Retail Sales Fell the Most in Its 73-Year Reporting History
• Production and Manufacturing Tumbled the Most in Their 101-Year History
• Increasing New Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Insured Unemployed Confirm the Fell Further in May, Albeit Likely at a Moderating Pace
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real Annualized GDP Contraction of About 50% (-50%) Will Surpass Anything Ever Seen
• If There Are Meaningful Efforts to Reopen the , Third Quarter Activity Could Move Off Bottom in a Nascent L- or Shallow U-Shaped Recovery
• Benchmark Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Confirmed Major Downside Revisions Loom for Pre-Pandemic GDP Reporting
• U.S. Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic, Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice

Flash Commentary No. 1436

(SGS Subscription required) • April 2020 Cass Freight Index® Collapsed by 22.7% (-22.7%) Year-to-Year
• Level of Activity and Annual Decline Both Sank to Lows Last Seen at the Depths of the Great Recession
• Deepening Declines in Annual Freight Activity Remain Inconsistent With a Pre-Pandemic Booming
• Consistent With Fourth-Quarter 2019 and First-Quarter 2020 Contractions in Industrial Production and Real Retail Sales the Pandemic Savaged What Already Was an Unfolding Recession

Flash Commentary No. 1435

(SGS Subscription required) • Headline April 2020 Unemployment Really Was Around 20%, Not 15%
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Disclosed Erroneous Unemployment Surveying for a Second Month
• About 7.5 Million People in the April Household Survey Were Misclassified as Employed Instead of Unemployed, per the BLS
• Headline April U.3 Unemployment at 14.7%, Should Have Been 19.5%
• The BLS Had Disclosed the Same Surveying Error Last Month; Where Headline March 2020 U.3 Was 4.4%, It Should Have Been 5.3%
• Per the BLS, Headline Data Will Not Be Corrected: “To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.”
• Nonetheless, Headline April Unemployment Soared to Historic Highs from March: U.3 from 4.4% to 14.7%, U.6 from 8.7% to 22.8% and ShadowStats from 22.9% to 35.4%
• More Realistic, Those Same Unemployment Numbers, Corrected: U.3 from 5.3 % to 19.5%, U.6 from 9.6% to 27.7% and ShadowStats from 23.7% to 39.6%
• April 2020 Payrolls Collapsed by an Unprecedented 20.5 Million Jobs
• Annual Growth in April 2020 Money Supply Measures Soared to Historic Highs
• U.S. Economic Activity Has Collapsed to Great Depression Levels, with the Federal Reserve Creating Unlimited Money

Flash Commentary No. 1434

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic, Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice
• The COVID-19 Pandemic Shutdown Has Overwritten that Developing Recession With an Economic Collapse and Surging Headline Unemployment That Will Rival the Great Depression in the Week Ahead and Anything Seen in Modern U.S. Economic History in the Months Ahead
• Initial First-Quarter 2020 GDP Quarterly Contraction of 4.78% (-4.78%) Was the Worst Since the Depths of the Great Recession; It Likely Will Deepen to About 7% (-7%) in Its Monthly Revisions
• Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Remains on Track to Rival or Surpass the Deepest Contraction in the Great Depression
• Latest New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Indicate: April 2020 U.3 Unemployment Around 21% – Worst Since Great Depression Depths May 2020 U.3 Likely to Top 30% – Worst in Modern Economic History
• Federal Reserve Will Hold Its Current Expansive Policies in Place, Including Fed Funds at 0.00% to 0.25% and Unlimited Creation of Money and Liquidity, For the Duration of the Pandemic Downturn
• Money Supply Annual Growth Pushes to Record Highs With Each New Weekly Report

Flash Commentary No. 1433

(SGS Subscription required) • Retail Sales Benchmarking Showed the GDP Slowing More Than Headlined, Coming Into the Pandemic Shutdown
• ShadowStats Forecasts First-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Activity Ultimately Will Show a Drop of About 7.1% (-7.1%), With Second-Quarter GDP Plunging by Roughly 38% (-38%)
• Optimistic Expectations for an Initial First-Quarter Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Incorporate Overly Positive Reporting Assumptions That Filled Gaps in Initial, Limited-Quality Reporting of Activity in Underlying Series
• Assuming Some Pandemic Relief, GDP Could Be Off Bottom Before Year-End; Full Recovery Will Be Difficult and Complicated
• Mounting Risks of a Hyperinflationary Great Depression, as the Federal Reserve and Federal Government Launch Unlimited Money Creation, Deficit Spending and Financial Bailouts
• Annual Growth in Money Supply M1, M2 and the ShadowStats M3 Jumped to Historic Highs in First Two Weeks of April 2020
• Watch for Early Inflation Warning Signal in Surging Price of Gold