Category Archives: Offshore

No. 966: July 2018 Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Freight

(SGS Subscription required) • Recent Sizzle Has Fizzled
• Financial-Market and Economic Prospects Remain Far Shy of the Hype and Headlines, Amidst Tanking Consumer Optimism and Negative Revisions to Recent Reporting
• July 2018 Real Retail Sales Unchanged Net of Downside Revisions to May and June
• July Housing Starts and Components Revised Lower, with Deepening Downtrends and Quarterly Contractions
• New Residential Construction Activity Held Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Highs: July Housing Starts by 49.1% (-49.1%), Single-Unit Starts by 53.2% (-53.2%), Multiple-Unit Starts by 32.4% (-32.4%), Building Permits by 42.1% (-42.1%)
• July Manufacturing Showed a Modest Increase on Top of Upside Revisions, Still Holding Shy by 5.0% (-5.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, Setting a Record 127-Consecutive Months of Economic Non-Expansion
• Common Experience and Realistic Estimates Show the Is Not Exploding, Holding Well Shy of Recovering Its 2007 Peak
• Nonetheless, Real Aggregate Activity Remains Off Its 2009 Bottom, Growing Both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Since Second-Quarter 2017
• Deteriorating Consumer and Systemic Liquidity, Intensify Economic Risks; Federal Reserve Tightening Policies and Oil-Driven Inflation Threaten a Fragile, Nascent Recovery

No. 965: July 2018 Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings, FOMC

(SGS Subscription required) • July 2018 CPI-U, CPI-W and PPI-FD Goods Annual Inflation Rates Jumped to Respective New 79-Month Highs (Since December 2011) of 2.95%, 3.16% and 4.50%
• Less-Meaningful PPI-FD Aggregate Inflation Backed Off to 3.27% from 3.37% in June, Hit by Falling Profit Margins at Gasoline Stations
• July 2018 Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted Anew, Month-to-Month (Seasonally Adjusted) and/or Year-to-Year (Unadjusted) Down by 0.01% (-0.01%) in the Month, by 0.22% (-0.22%) in the Year for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees
• Real Average Weekly Earnings for All Employees Fell by 0.20% (-0.20%) in July, Unchanged at 0.00% Year-to-Year
• Intensifying Consumer Income and Credit Woes Dim Economic Prospects
• Mounting Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Issues Reflect Fed Tightening and Surging Annual Inflation, Driven by Oil Prices, Not by Strong Economic Demand
• FOMC-Targeted Annual “Core” CPI-U Inflation Rose to 2.35% from 2.26%, “Worst” Level Since September 2008, Although It Was 2.33% in February 2016
• Fed Rumblings for Greater Rate Hikes to Kill the “Overheating”

No. 964-A: July Labor Numbers and Money Supply M3, June Trade Deficit and Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • July 2018 Annual Growth in the Monetary Base and Money Supply Weakened Anew, as the FOMC Attempts to Squeeze Liquidity Out of a Possible Nascent Economic Recovery
• July Private Labor-Market Surveying Turned Mixed
• July U.3 Unemployment Rate Dropped to 3.87% from 4.05% in June; July U.6 Unemployment Fell to 7.54% from 7.79%; On Top of U.3 and U.6 July ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Declined to 21.3% from 21.5%
• Labor-Market Stress Continued at High Levels, Still Consistent with Headline Unemployment Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low
• July Payroll Jobs Gained 157,000 (up by 216,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.65% Holding in Recession-Signal Territory
• July Household Survey Gained 389,000 Employed, With a Decline of 284,000 (-284,000) Unemployed but with an Increase of 453,000 Multiple-Job Holders
• June Nominal Balance-of-Payments and Real-Merchandise Trade Deficits Widened In the Month but Narrowed in the Quarter
• June Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Construction Spending, Dropped Month-to-Month, Slowed Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.8% (-19.8%)