Category Archives: Offshore

Flash Update No. 16

(SGS Subscription required) • Ongoing Nonsense Out of the Federal Open Market Committee
• FOMC-Proclaimed Sustainable Moderate Growth Continues!
• Meeting Market Expectations, the FOMC Held Rates in Check, with No Intention of Alleviating an Unacknowledged, Troubled and with No Intention of Helping Troubled Consumer Liquidity
• FOMC Projects that Jobs Growth Will Remain Strong, Yet, Persistent, Historically Low Annual Payroll Growth Faces a Heavy Hit From Pending, Already Indicated Downside Benchmark Revisions
• 50-Year Low Unemployment, Yet Labor Market Stress Looks Like a Recession
• Fed Purportedly Has Gained Control of Inflation, Which Is Happy News, Unless You Are Trying to Make Ends Meet
• For All Employees, November Real Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings Showed Zero Monthly Growth for the Third Straight Month
• Although Still Not Understood by the FOMC, Systemic Liquidity Issues Purportedly Are Under Control with Balance Sheet Expansion

Bullet Edition No. 15

(SGS Subscription required) • There Is No Sustainable, Moderate U.S. Economic Growth in Play, Irrespective of Federal Reserve Pronouncements
• FOMC Needs to Cut Rates to Boost the and Help Consumers, But It Likely Will Not Do So at Its December 10th to 11th Meeting
• The FOMC Likely Will Continue to Meet Any Unexpected Funding Needs of Its Parent Banking System, In Order to Maintain Systemic and Market Liquidity
• Record Low Headline Unemployment Continued Amidst Levels of Labor-Market Stress Consistent With a Major Recession
• Annual Payroll Growth Should Drop to Its Post-Great Recession Low, Along With the Benchmark Revisions Indicated for Headline January 2020 Payrolls
• Improved October Trade Deficit Was an Artefact of the General Motors Strike, Which Otherwise Put a Dent in Recent GDP Activity
• November 2019 Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Jumped to 8.5%, Highest Since February 2009

Special Commentary No. 985

(SGS Subscription required) • Second Consecutive, Negative Holiday Shopping Season Is Underway
• Collapsing October 2019 Production, Retail Sales and Freight Activity Suggested a Quarterly Contraction in Real Fourth-Quarter 2019 GDP; N.Y. and Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast Models Currently at 0.8% and 1.3%
• Amidst Increasingly Impaired Indicators of Economic and Systemic Health, the Flummoxed FOMC Should Be Easing Anew at Its December Meeting, Despite Current Protestations to Contrary
• FOMC Claim of Sustainable, Moderate Economic Growth Was Nonsense and Is Evaporating; Market Expectations Should Move Towards Expanded Easing, With Dollar Selling and Flight to Gold Likely to Intensify
• Consensus Economic Outlook Increasingly Should Tumble, Amidst Unfolding Negative Headline Activity, Combined With Pending, Corrective Downside Benchmark Revisions to Key Series through July 2020
• Overstated Growth for Retail Sales, Manufacturing and Related Series, Reflected Data Disruptions, Distortions and Delays from the Partial Government Shutdown and Related Federal-Budget Constraints
• Market Recognition of the Unfolding Economic Downturn Continues to Mount, but Formal Recession Recognition Is Not Likely Before Late-2020

Flash Update No. 15

(SGS Subscription required) • An Unfolding, Deepening Recession
• Upside Revision to Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product, from 1.9% to 2.1%, Reflected No More Than an Involuntary Build-Up in Unsold Inventories
• Net of Inventory Change, Third-Quarter Final Sales Declined Minimally
• Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income, Theoretical GDP Equivalent, Revised Down to 0.9% from 1.8% Annualized Real Growth
• October 2019 Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Continued to Plunge, Despite Major Downside Revisions to Prior Months
• October CASS Freight Index Dropped Year-to-Year for the 11th Straight Month; Indicating a Deepening Downturn and Risks of a Fourth-Quarter GDP Contraction
• With the FOMC-Proclaimed Sustainable Moderate Expansion Evaporating, Expectations Should Shift in Favor of a More-Accommodative Fed

Flash Update No. 14

(SGS Subscription required) • Gold Should Continue to Outperform Stocks, Despite Recent Selling of Precious Metals and Stock-Market Rallies
• Consider that the S&P 500 Record High of Friday, November 8th, Was up by 5.5% from Its Record High of September 20, 2018
• In Contrast, London Gold of November 8th Closed up by 21.8% from September 20, 2018, Despite Recent Heavy Selling of Gold
• Continued Deterioration of Underlying Economic Fundamentals Should Accelerate in the Week Ahead, Dampening Economic Expectations
• An Ongoing Collapse in October Industrial Production, With Retail Sales Growth Running Below Headline Inflation, Should Challenge FOMC Claims of Sustainable Moderate Growth