Category Archives: Offshore

No. 894: Economic- and Financial-System Conditions, May Household Income and Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Is Turning Down Anew, Threatening Banking-System Stability, Likely to Roil FOMC Policy, with Sharply-Negative Impact on the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Equities, Spiking Inflation and Prices of Gold and Silver
• Major Market Turmoil Increasingly Likely in the Near Future
• Headline Economic Data in the Month Ahead Could Signal a Day-of-Reckoning at Hand
• Despite a Monthly Boost from Falling Gasoline Prices, May 2017 Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged
• Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in May, Yet Both Series Were on Track for Second-Quarter Contractions
• May Existing-Homes Sales Down by 22.7% (-22.7%) and New-Home Sales Down by 56.1% (-56.1%) from Pre-Recession Peaks

No. 893: May 2017 Housing Starts, Consumer Liquidity Update

(SGS Subscription required) • May Housing Starts Plummeted on Top of Downside Revisions, Confounding Happy, Rebounding Consensus Expectations
• Stagnant to Downtrending Activity Remained Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks by 52.0% (-52.0%) for Housing Starts and by 48.4% (-48.4%) for Building Permits
• Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continue to Restrain Broad Economic Growth

No. 892: May Industrial Production, FOMC, U.S. Dollar and Gold

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Faces Deteriorating Economic Conditions and Renewed Solvency Stresses in the Banking System
• June 14th Rate Hike Could Be the Last One for This Cycle
• U.S. Dollar Near a Peak? Gold Price Near a Trough?
• Headline Unchanged Production and Drop of 0.4% (-0.4%) in Manufacturing Were Boosted by Downside Revisions to March and April Activity
• Still No Full Economic Recovery as of May 2017 Reporting, with Production and Manufacturing Down Respectively by Deepened, Net
Contractions of 0.3% (-0.3%) and 6.1% (-6.1%) from Pre-Recession Highs
• With No End in Sight, 113 Months of Continual Non-Expanding Manufacturing Is the Longest Period of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of U.S. Industrial Production, Topping the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression

May Retail Sales, Earnings, Consumer and Producer Price Indices, FOMC

(SGS Subscription required) • With Increasingly Adverse Economic Data, FOMC Hiked the Fed Funds Rate
• May 2017 Nominal Retail Sales Fell by 0.3% (-0.3%), Despite a Gimmicked Monthly Sales Boost of 0.2% from Seasonal-Factor Distortions
• Headline Real May Retail Sales Sank by 0.13% (-0.13%), Despite a CPI Contraction of 0.13% (-0.13%)
• Recession Signal Intensified Sharply
• First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Despite No Growth in May, Weak Inflation Boosted Second-Quarter Real Earnings Trend
• Headline CPI-U Inflation Declined by 0.13% (-0.13%) in May 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 1.87% (Was 2.20%), with CPI-W at 1.78% (Was 2.14%) and ShadowStats at 9.6% (was 10.0%)
• May 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI at 2.36%, Minimally Backed Off a 62-Month High of 2.45% in April
• Annual PPI Inflation Boosted by Poor-Quality Theoretical Constructs, Such as Declining Gasoline Prices Spiking Services Inflation

No. 890: May Employment, April Construction Spending and Trade Deficit Revisions

(SGS Subscription required) • Trade-Deficit Benchmarking Showed Deeper Deficits 2014-to-Date, with Implications for Downside Benchmark Revisions to the GDP
• Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007
• In Uptrending, Low-Level Stagnation, April Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peak by 12.6% (-12.6%)
• May Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse
• Monthly Payroll Gains Slowed on Top of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions
• Slowing, Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession
• May 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.3% from 4.4%, U.6 Fell to 8.4% from 8.6% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 22.0% from 22.1%
• Labor Numbers Out of Balance: April 2017 Headline Unemployment of 4.3%, Lowest Since March 2001, Coincided with Weakening, Near-Historic Lows in the Participation Rate (Labor Force/Population) and Employment-to-Population Ratio
• In Contrast, March 2001 Headline Unemployment of 4.3% Coincided with Participation Rates and Employment-Population Ratios Just Off Historic Highs
• Real Construction Spending Remained 21.3% (-21.3%) Short of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.6% in May, versus 3.4% in April