Category Archives: Offshore

No. 936: January Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, CPI and PPI

(SGS Subscription required) • Natural-Disaster Boost to the Topped Out in November 2017; Now Backing Off with a Vengeance, as Predicted
• Watch the Dollar!
• January 2018 Industrial Production Declined 0.1% (-0.1%) Month-to-Month, On Top of Downside Revisions to December Activity
• Production Peaked in November, Net of a Record, Winter-Driven Utility Surge
• January Real Retail Sales Plunged 0.8% (-0.8%), Dropping 1.2% (-1.2%) Net of Sharp Downside Revisions to December and Holiday-Season Activity; Annual Growth Fell Deep into Recession-Warning Territory
• Real Average Weekly Earnings Head into Third-Consecutive Quarterly Decline, the Fifth Headline Quarter-to-Quarter Decline in the Last Six Quarters
• “Surging” Housing Starts Activity Was Statistically Insignificant, as Usual, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High by 41.7% (-41.7%)
• Someone Used Contrary Hype to Boost Interest Rates or to Spook Stocks: Headline “Fears of Soaring Inflation” Greeted Annual “Core” CPI-U Inflation Holding Predictably Range-Bound at 1.8%, for the Tenth Month, versus the Fed’s 2.0% Target
• Monthly Inflation Gains of 0.54% and 0.44% in the January CPI-U and PPI Were Dominated by Irregular Volatility in Adjusted, Monthly Gasoline Prices
• Common Inflation Experience Is Much Worse than the Headline Numbers

No. 935 – SPECIAL COMMENTARY, ANNUAL REVIEW – PART ONE Economic and Financial Review and Preview

(SGS Subscription required) • Did the Fed Trigger the Stock Sell-Off?
• How Can the Be Booming, Given Ten Years of Ongoing Non-Expansion in Manufacturing, Real Construction Spending, Housing Starts and Home Sales, Domestic Freight Activity, Domestic Petroleum Consumption, Real Consumer Credit (Ex-Federal Student Loans) and Given a Decade of Stressed-Employment Conditions?
• As Natural-Disaster Spending Boosts Wane, Stagnant Economic Conditions Face a Renewed Tumble in Months Ahead
• Renewed Downturn Could Trigger Resurgent Fed Pressures for Expanded Quantitative Easing and Intensified Dollar Debasement
• Budget-Deficit Issues Should Become Focus of the Currency Markets
• Long-Range U.S. Economic and Financial-Market Health Depend on Resolving Both Misdirected Policies of the Federal Reserve and
Intensifying U.S. Sovereign-Solvency Concerns of the Global Markets
• Massive U.S. Dollar Selling, Debasement and Eventual Hyperinflation Continue as the Primary Risks to Domestic Economic and Political Stability; Precious Metals Remain the Proven and Established Primary Hedge to Same

934-B Market Turmoil, January Labor, Payroll Benchmarking, December Trade Deficit

(SGS Subscription required) • Unexpected Faltering in U.S. Economic Activity Likely Will Not Benefit Disorderly Markets
• Annual 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficit Was Worst Since 2007, with the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Deficit Worst Since Second-Quarter 2007
• Trade Deficit Exploded Versus China, NAFTA and OPEC
• Widened Deficit Adds Downside-Revision Pressure to Fourth-Quarter GDP
• Sinking Annual Payroll Growth Intensified Its Recession Signal, Despite Upside Benchmark Revisions to Payroll Levels
• Population Re-Estimation Added 488,000 Working-Age People, Boosting a Magical (Illusioned) 409,000 Surge in January Employment
• January 2018 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher Month-to-Month: U.3 Firmed to 4.15% from 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 8.19% from 8.08%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.8% from 21.7%

No. 934-A: January Labor, Payroll Benchmark, Private Surveying, M3, December Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Recession Signal Intensified from Sinking Annual Growth in Payrolls, Despite Upside Benchmark Revisions to Payroll Levels
• Population Re-Estimation Added 488,000 Working-Age People
• January 2018 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher Month-to-Month: U.3 Firmed to 4.15% from 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 8.19% from 8.08%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.8% from 21.7%
• Private Surveying of January Labor Conditions Showed Flat Activity with Annual Contraction/No Growth and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• December Monthly Gain in Real Construction Spending Contracted Net of Downside Revisions
• Annual Growth in Real Construction Spending Declined for Seventh Straight Month, an Intensifying Recession Signal Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• Real Spending Is Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)
• Amidst Annual Benchmark Revisions by the Fed, January 2018 M3 Annual Growth Eased Back to 4.5%, with Monetary-Base Annual Growth Softening to 4.9%

No. 933: Dollar Turmoil, Fourth-Quarter GDP, New Orders, Freight Index, Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • As the U.S. Dollar Weakens, and Gold and Oil Prices Jump, Watch Out for the Stock Market!
• The Worst Trade Deficit Since 2017 Clobbered Fourth-Quarter GDP; Deteriorating Net Exports Knocked 1.13% (-1.13%) Off Quarterly Growth
• Fourth- Versus Third-Quarter Real GDP Growth Slowed to 2.55% from 3.16%, with Inventory Liquidation and a Soaring Trade Deficit Offsetting Some of the Gains from Surging Defense Spending and Disaster-Boosted Demand for Goods and Structures
• Net of Trade and Inventories, Fourth- Versus Third-Quarter Real GDP Growth Jumped to 4.35% from 2.01%
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Full Recovery from the Recession: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Freight Activity and Manufacturing All Have Completed a Full Decade of No Economic Expansion
• Defense Spending Boosted December Durable Goods Orders Sharply
• Faltering Consumer Outlook
• Foreclosures Appear to Be on the Rise, as Existing-Home Sales Sink Anew
• On Top of Sharp Downside Revisions to November Home Sales, December Activity Plunged Monthly by 9.3% (-9.3%) and by 3.6% (-3.6%) for New and Existing Homes, Shy of Respective Pre-Recession Peaks by 55.0% (-55.0%) and 23.4% (-23.4%)