Category Archives: Offshore

No. 945: March Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Real Earnings

(SGS Subscription required) • For All Employees, First-Quarter 2018 Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted 0.4% (-0.4%), along with Slowing Real Growth in Consumer Credit
• Quarterly Real Average Weekly Earnings Contracted 1.5% (-1.5%) for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, the Third Consecutive Quarterly Decline, the Fifth in the Last Six Quarters
• Unadjusted Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to a 12-Month High 2.36% in March 2018, Up from 2.21% in February 2018, Still Holding Well Shy of Common Experience
• Fed’s Targeted “Core” Inflation Broke Above 2.0%, to 2.1% in March 2018, Highest Level in 13 Months • Annual PPI Inflation Rose to a 74-Month High of 3.03% in March 2018, Reflecting Jumps in Food Prices and Outpatient Costs
• A Leading Indicator to Broad Economic Activity, March 2018 Real Annual Growth in Money Supply M3 Slowed to a Six-Month Low
• Next Week’s Headline Economic Reporting Could Lock in a First-Quarter 2018 Real GDP Contraction
• Nonetheless, While Not Close to an Economic Expansion, Some Positive Anecdotal Evidence on the Is Surfacing

No. 944: March Labor Conditions, Private Surveying, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • No Such Thing as Free Trade
• Worst-Ever Quarterly Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Remained on Track, Fueling Trade “Negotiations” and Dollar, Stock-Market and Economic Concerns
• Increase in Nominal Balance-of-Payments Deficit in Goods and Services Reflected Services Import of Intellectual Property for Broadcasting the Winter Olympics
• March 2018 Household-Survey Count of Employed Declined by 37,000 (-37,000), While Full-Time Employed Dropped by 311,000 (-311,000)
• March Payroll-Jobs Count Rose by 103,000 (by 53,000 Net of Revisions) but the Gain Was Not Statistically Different from Zero at the 95% Confidence Level; Bloated January and February Payroll Levels Revised Lower
• March 2018 Unemployment Rates Declined Month-to-Month: U.3 Eased to 4.07% versus 4.14%, U.6 Declined to 8.00% from 8.24%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Declined to 21.7% from 21.8%
• Private Surveying of March Labor Conditions Showed Weakening Annual Growth and No Economic Expansion
• Mixed but Faltering Annual Real Growth in Construction Spending Continued in a Pattern Last Seen Leading into the 2007 Recession
• Annual Growth in March Money Supply Measures Slowed Sharply; Monetary Base Declined Year-to-Year; Weakened Real Liquidity Growth Threatens Economic Activity

No. 943: Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, Gross Domestic Income, Trade

(SGS Subscription required) • Fourth-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product GDP Annualized Real Growth Revised to 2.89% (Previously 2.54%), Down from 3.16% in Third-Quarter 2017
• Fourth-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI), Theoretical GDP Equivalent, Slowed to 0.87% from 2.44% in Third-Quarter
• Fourth-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP), Broadest Measure of the , Slowed to 2.71% from 3.65% in Third-Quarter
• First-Quarter 2018 Real Merchandise Trade Continued on Track for Worst Shortfall in Modern Reporting
• March Economic Numbers Should Disappoint Expectations
• First-Quarter GDP Increasingly Looks Like a Contraction
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Economic Expansion

No. 942-B: Industrial Production Benchmarking, February New Orders, Freight Index, Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • Accompanying Graphs Show Basic Nature of Upside Biases Regularly Built into Official Economic Reporting
• Industrial Production of Recent Years Revised Meaningfully Lower, Dominated by Much-Weaker Manufacturing, Including Weaker Auto Production
• Production Now Shows a Formal Double-Dip Recession, from a December 2007 Peak and a Brief, Oil-Production-Driven Expansion to a Now, Non-Recovered November 2014 Peak
• Manufacturing Now Is Shy by 5.5% (-5.5%) of Its Never-Recovered December 2007 Peak, Still Holding in a Record 122 Months of Non-Expansion
• Pending Negative Benchmarkings Implied for Retail Sales, New Orders for Durable Goods and the Gross Domestic Product • Signals Continued for First-Quarter 2018 GDP Contraction, as the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Disaster-Recovery Boom Turns to Bust
• Real Durable Goods Orders and New- and Existing-Home Sales All Showed Unfolding First-Quarter Contractions, versus Fourth-Quarter Booms, Despite Monthly Gains in February
• Real New Orders Activity and New- and Existing-Home Sales All Remained Well Shy of Recovering Their Pre-2007 Recession Peaks
• February 2018 Freight Index Hit a Post-2007 Recession High, Still Shy by 11.2% (-11.2%) of Recovering its Pre-2007 Recession Peak

No. 942-A: Industrial Production Benchmarking, February New Orders, Freight Index, Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • Industrial Production Revised Meaningfully Lower, Dominated by Much-Weaker Manufacturing, As Predicted
• Signals Mount for First-Quarter GDP Contraction, as the Fourth-Quarter 2017 Disaster-Recovery Boom Turns to a Bust
• Real Durable Goods Orders, Both Aggregate and Ex-Commercial-Aircraft, Showed an Unfolding Flat-to-Minus First-Quarter, Versus a Fourth-Quarter Boom
• Real New Orders Activity Remained Shy in Aggregate by 8.0% (-8.0%), and in Ex-Commercial Aircraft by 5.3% (-5.3%) from Recovering Pre-Recessions Highs
• Still Shy by 11.2% (-11.2%) of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, February Freight Index Hit a Post-Recession High
• Both New- and Existing-Home Sales Showed Large Fourth-Quarter Gains Turning into Large First-Quarter Contractions
• Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Mixed, but Held Shy of Their Pre-Recession Peaks by 55.5% (-55.5%) and 23.8% (-23.8%)