Category Archives: Offshore

No. 955: May 2018 Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Retail Sales, Production, Freight, FOMC

(SGS Subscription required) • Shifting Interest-Rate Perceptions Boosted the Dollar, Intensifying Risks of the Day of Reckoning for the U.S. Currency and Financial Markets
• May 2018 CPI-U and PPI Annual Inflation Rates Jumped to Respective 74- and 76-Month Highs of 2.80% and 3.11%
• Rising Inflation Reflected Surging Gasoline Prices from Global-Political and Oil Supply Disruptions, Not from Booming U.S. Economic Activity; Nonetheless, the FOMC Boosted Interest Rates, Again
• Surging, Non-Demand-Driven Inflation, Combined with Fed Tightenings, Already Are Impairing Real Growth in Consumer and Systemic Liquidity
• Inflation-Adjusted Real Average Weekly Earnings Remained Stalled in May, With Monthly Gains Shy of 0.1%; Quarterly Contractions Held in Place
• Higher Oil Prices Boosted Oil-and-Gas Extraction and Exploration, in U.S. Mining-Sector Production, Although Total Production Declined in May
• Manufacturing Took a Heavy Hit, Even Allowing for a Major Supply Disruption, Still Shy by 6.0% (-6.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession High, Faltering in a Record 125 Months of Economic Non-Expansion
• Real Retail Sales Were Strong in May, Thanks Largely to a Major Distortion in Inflation-Adjustment Consistency
• Consumer Goods Production Fell Sharply, Contravening “Booming” Retail Sales

No. 954: May 2018 Trade Deficit and Benchmark Revisions

(SGS Subscription required) • Troubled Economic Reporting in the Month or Two Ahead
• Benchmark-Revised Patterns of GDP Economic Activity Should Show a Softer 2007 Peak, a Deeper Collapse into 2009 and a Less-Robust Recovery, with Downgraded Growth in 2015 to 2017
• U.S. Trade-Balance Benchmark Revisions Indicated a Slower and a Deeper Real Merchandise Trade Deficit than Before
• April Nominal Balance of Payments Deficit Improved in April 2018
• Consumer Liquidity Conditions Continued to Tighten, as Real Household Debt Contracted in First-Quarter 2018, while Slowing Annual Growth in Real Consumer Credit Intensified Sharply in April 2018

No. 953-B: May 2018 Employment and Unemployment, April Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Massive Inconsistencies Arise in the Headline Household-Survey Numbers Due to Severity of Great-Recession Increase in Discouraged and Displaced Workers
• Despite Historically-Low Unemployment Rates, the Number of Discouraged Workers and those Wanting a Job Are on the Rise
• May 2018 Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio, Which Are Traditional Measures of Labor-Market Health, Remained Consistent with Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High of 10% than a Record Low of 3.8%; Headline Circumstance Could be Supporting a Further 11.1 Million Employed
• May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8% (3.75%), Lowest Rate Since April 2000, at the First Decimal Point, at a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low, at the Second Decimal Point; Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
• On Top of U.3, May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
• May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%), Despite Increased Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions

No. 953-A: May 2018 Monetary Conditions, Labor Numbers, April Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Federal Reserve Has Pushed Real Annual Money Supply Growth Down to Levels That Threaten an Intensifying, “New” Economic Contraction
• Annual Growth Weakened Sharply for All Money Supply Measures in May 2018, Along with Continued Monthly and Annual Contractions in the Monetary Base
• May Labor-Market Stress Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High Than a Record Low
• Headline May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8%, Lowest Level Since October 2000, at the First Decimal Point
• May U.3 (Second Decimal Point) Hit a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low of 3.75%, Down from 3.93% in April, Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
• May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, the Lowest Since October 2000
• The May ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Lowest Since September 2009, Declining on Top of U.6 but Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
• May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%), Despite Surging Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions