Category Archives: Offshore

No. 974: September Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Liquidity and Markets

(SGS Subscription required) • As Some Acorns Begin to Fall, Beware the Dollar; Risks of Major Financial-Market Upheaval Are High
• Ongoing Federal Reserve Rate Hikes and Related Policies Have Continued to Tighten Systemic and Consumer Liquidity, Pummeling Retail Sales, and Near-Term Economic Prospects, and Threatening Financial-System Stability
• Hurricane-Triggered Boosts to Energy Prices in September 2017 Depressed Relative Year-to-Year Inflation Rates in September 2018; Annual Consumer Inflation Should be Pushing Three-Percent by December
• CPI-U Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.28% in September 2018 versus 2.70% in August 2018
• CPI-W Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.33% in September 2018 versus 2.87% in August 2018
• September Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired
• 2019 Social Security COLA of 2.8% (Based on the CPI-W), Would Have Been 2.4% Using the C-CPI-U, Which Has Been Designed for That Purpose, But Not Yet Implemented
• FOMC-Targeted Core CPI Inflation, Little Affected by Year-Ago Hurricane Disruptions, Held at 2.17% Year-to-Year in September 2018 versus 2.20% in August 2018
• Aggregate PPI Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.64% in September 2018 versus 2.83% in August 2018

No. 972: September Labor Numbers and Money Supply, August Trade Deficit, Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Second-Half 2018 Economic Growth Prospects Continue to Weaken, With Tightening Systemic Liquidity and a Deepening Trade Deficit
• Annual M3 Growth Sank to a 13-Month Low in September 2018, with the Level of the Monetary Base on the Brink of Breaking to a Five-Year Low
• Unemployment Dropped to 3.7%, with Employed Jumping by 420,000, While Payroll Growth Slowed to 134,000 from an Upwardly Revised 270,000; Hurricane Distortions Likely Depressed Both the Unemployment Rate and the Jobs Gain Number, Given Bureau of Labor Statistics Definitional Inconsistencies
• September U.3 Unemployment Dropped to a Record Lower 3.68%, from 3.85%; Yet, Broader U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.45% from 7.39%. On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rose to 21.3% from 21.2%
• Intense Labor-Market Stresses Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not at a Record Low
• Total August Real Construction Spending, Residential and Nonresidential, Fell for the Third Straight Month; Private Spending Down, Government Spending Up

No. 971: Construction and Housing Markets, Durable Goods Orders, GDP and Underlying Reality

(SGS Subscription required) • Second-Half 2018 Economic Growth Prospects Are on the Wane, With Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Headed for a Record Shortfall
• August Private Labor-Market Surveying Showed Some Pickup
• Federal Reserve Tightening Hits the Consumer Hard, Threatening Any Nascent, Broad Economic Upturn
• Total August Real Construction Spending, Residential and Nonresidential, Fell for Third Straight Month; Private Spending Down, Government Spending Up
• Clobbered by Intensifying Consumer Liquidity Troubles, All Major Residential-Construction and Home-Sales Indicators in August Held in Deepening, Six-Month Moving-Average Downtrends
• Residential Sales and Construction Held Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks: Existing-Home Sales by 26.5% (-26.5%), New-Home Sales by 54.7% (-54.7%), Building Permits by 45.7% (-45.7%) and Housing Starts by 43.6% (-43.6%)
• Ex-Defense and Commercial Aircraft, August Real Durable Goods Orders Fell by 0.5% (-0.5%); Automobile Orders and Shipments Declined; Growth Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer
• Second-Quarter Real Gross Domestic (GDP) Revised to 4.16% from 4.23%; Purported Equivalent Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 1.62% from 1.81%
• Real GDP Stood 17.4% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, Yet It Held Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation

No. 970: Tipping Point, Liquidity, Freight, Hurricane-Disrupted Data, Retail Sales, Production, Inflation

(SGS Subscription required) • Tipping Point for the Markets Likely Is at Hand
• Booming Consumer Outlook in September 2018 Has Parallels to 1987
• The FOMC Hiked Rates as Expected, Although Core Inflation Had Slowed Back to Below Overheated Conditions
• The Fed Has Dimmed Near-Term Economic Prospects by Continuing to Tighten the Screws on Consumer and Systemic Liquidity, Likely Thwarting Any Nascent Economic Recovery
• August Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired
• Monthly Growth in Real Retail Sales and Production Ground to a Halt in August, Net of Revisions, While Annual Growth in Freight Activity Softened
• Hurricane Florence Likely Disrupted Pending September Employment and Unemployment Numbers, on Top of Year-Ago Distortions
• Hurricane-Spiked Gasoline Prices in 2017 Will Have a Minimal Dampening Effect on the Pending Social Security COLA Determination
• Hurricane-Driven 2017 Data Turmoil Resurfaced with August 2018 Inflation, Slowing Annual Inflation, with Headline Growth Distortions Likely in Pending Economic Releases for September 2018 and Beyond