Category Archives: Offshore

No. 915: September 2017 Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3

(SGS Subscription required) • Headline Labor Detail Showed Major Disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, With Mixed-Surveying Definitions Exaggerating or Masking Impact
• Nonsense Data: If One Seasonally Adjusts Scrambled Numbers, the Adjusted Numbers Still Are Scrambled
• Hurricane-Impacted September 2017 Unemployment Rates Declined: U.3 Fell to 4.22% versus 4.44%, U.6 Fell to 8.29% versus 8.59%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 21.9% versus 22.2%
• September Household Survey Employment Jumped by 906,000, Including 1,500,000 Counted as Employed, Otherwise Unemployed by the Weather
• September Payroll Survey Employment Declined by 33,000 (-33,000), Down by 71,000 (-71,000) Net of Pre-Hurricane Downside Revisions
• Annual Growth in September Money Supply M3 and the Monetary Base Jumped Sharply

No. 914: August Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, September Private Labor Surveying

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Remains in Serious Trouble: Non-Recovered, Non-Expanding and Turning Down Anew, Separate from Near-Term, Temporary Weather Impact
• Private Surveying of September Labor Conditions Signaled Continued Downturn
• Headline Real Merchandise Trade Deficits in July and August Were Worse than Suggested by the Advance Estimate of the August Goods Trade Deficit
• Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Trade Deficit through Second-Quarter Remained Worst Since 2007, with the Trend Intensifying in Third-Quarter 2017
• Annual Decline in August 2017 Real Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.0% (-23.0%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend • Storm-Related Impact on Economic Data Will Break in the Week Ahead

No. 913: Second-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Third Estimate

(SGS Subscription required) • Unusual Labor Statistics Ahead?
• Second-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Revised to 3.06% (Previously 3.03%), Versus 1.24% in First-Quarter
• Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 2.89% (Previously 2.88%), Versus 2.68% in First-Quarter
• Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised to 2.77% (Previously 2.80%), Versus 0.94% in First-Quarter
• Better-Quality Measures than the Upwardly-Biased GDP Series Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Turning Increasingly to Renewed, Deepening Downturn

No. 912: New Orders for Durable Goods, Home Sales, Hurricane Economic Disruptions

(SGS Subscription required) • Mixed Hurricane Impact on Economic Reporting Likely Will Be of Substance in the Next Several Months, Beginning with September 2017 Detail
• Other than for August Industrial Production, Impact Has Been Negligible, So Far
• Underlying Negative Economic Trends Should Not Be Altered Meaningfully
• Net of Inflation and Gyrating Commercial-Aircraft Orders, Durable Goods Orders Were Down by 9.2% (-9.2%) from Their Non-Recovered, Pre-Recession Peak
• In Deepening Quarterly Contractions, August New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Down Respectively by 59.7% (-59.7%) and 26.4% (-26.4%) from Pre-Recession Peaks
• Six-Month-Smoothed Trends in Home Sales Have Turned Increasingly Negative, Showing Low-Level, Non-Recovered, Faltering Stagnation

No. 911: August 2017 Housing Starts and Building Permits, Freight Index

(SGS Subscription required) • Still Shy by 11.4% (-11.4%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, August 2017 Freight Activity Notched Higher Year-to-Year
• August 2017 New Residential Construction Continued in Downtrend
• Activity Held Shy of Regaining Pre-Recession Highs by 42.6% (-42.6%) for Building Permits, 48.1% (-48.1%) for Housing Starts and 53.3% (-53.3%) for Single-Unit Starts, While Multi-Unit Starts Have Fallen Back Anew by 26.9% (-26.9%)
• Nonsense-Volatility in the August Housing Starts Series: Monthly Declines in Total and Multiple-Unit Starts and a Gain in Single-Unit Starts All Were Artefacts of Much Larger, Opposite Revisions to July 2017 Activity
• New Residential Construction Should Receive Some Boost in the Months Ahead from Hurricane Destruction and Damage