Category Archives: Offshore

Flash Commentary No. 1449

(SGS Subscription required) • Federal Reserve Will Maintain Its 0.00% to 0.25% Targeted Fed Funds Rate and “At Least” the Current Pace of Asset Purchases, For the Duration
• Broad FOMC Outlook Appears Little Changed in Wake of September Meeting
• Policies Will Continue Until Both Full Employment and Targeted, Prospective Inflation Running Above 2.0% Are Attained
• FOMC Projections Suggest No Return to Normal Conditions Before 2024; Expectations Are for GDP Recovery of Pre-Pandemic Levels Around Fourth-Quarter 2021
• ShadowStats Conclusions: Policy Effects Will Mean a Continued Money Supply Spike, With Consumer Inflation Mounting Rapidly in the Next Six-to-Nine Months

Flash Commentary No. 1448

(SGS Subscription required) • Evolving, “L”-Shaped Economic Recovery Confirmed by Latest, Consistent Reporting of New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
• August 2020 CPI and PPI Core Inflation Continued to Spike
• Record Annual Money Supply Growth Foreshadows Higher Inflation
• While Record Money Growth Appears to Be Topping, the Leading-Relationship Federal Reserve Monetary Base Annual Growth Is Surging Anew
• Pending FOMC Could Look to Accelerate Already Record Money Supply Growth and the Pickup in Core Inflation
• Broader Money Measures Should Resume Annual Expansion in September/October With Inflation Accelerating Sharply in Early 2021

Flash Commentary No. 1447

(SGS Subscription required) • Economic Rebound Continues to Falter
• August 2020 Payroll and Unemployment Details Show Intensifying Flattening in the Developing L-Shaped Recovery
• Year-to-Year Decline in Payrolls Has Stabilized Around 7.0% (-7.0%), a Level Last Seen When the U.S. Reset After World War II
• Stalling Recovery Will Generate Greater Government Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Excesses
• Developing Record Shortfall in Third-Quarter Real Trade Deficit Has Negative Implications for Third-Quarter 2020 GDP
• Handling of Needed Revisions to New Unemployment Claims Rivaled Reporting Games that President Nixon Wanted to Play
• Bureau of Labor Statistics Still Cannot Count the Number of Unemployed Persons, Six Months into the Pandemic

Economic Commentary No. 1446

(SGS Subscription required) • Amidst Mounting Inflation Dangers, the Weakening L-Shaped Recovery from the Pandemic-Shutdown Began to Look Even Softer in July and Early-August Reporting
• Revised Second-Quarter GDP and Initial GDI and GNP Reporting Confirmed the Record Collapse, Wiping Out Five Years of Economic Growth, Resetting the Inflation-Adjusted Real U.S. GDP to Its Lowest Levels since 2014
• With the Below-Consensus, Limited Recovery Unfolding in Second-Half 2020, Real Value of the Full-Year 2020 U.S. GDP Will Be Lucky to Top That Seen in 2016
• Statistical Chicanery Surfaces Along With the L-Shaped Recovery; Department of Labor Rejiggers New Unemployment Claims for Happier, Pending Headlines, Without Providing Consistent, Restated Historical Data
• Non-Recovering, L-Shaped U.S. Labor Force (Employment Plus Unemployment) Suggests Protracted Economic Collapse; 4.8 Million Unemployed Are Missing
• Industrial Production and Employment Numbers Show Deepening Trouble, While Booming Retail and Home Sales Are Running Counter to Sinking Consumer Optimism and Finances
• In March, the FOMC Exploded Money Supply and Inflationary Pressures to Fight the Pandemic-Driven Economic Collapse and Related Systemic Instabilities
• Record Year-to-Year M1 Money Supply Growth in Early-August Topped 40%
• With August Inflation Pressures Mounting, the FOMC Conveniently Has Retargeted Its Long-Standing Goal of 2% Core Inflation to the Upside
• Mounting Hyperinflation Risks, Heavy Dollar Selling and Systemic Instabilities Promise New Highs Ahead for Gold and Silver Prices

Flash Economic Commentary No. 1445

(SGS Subscription required) • Mounting, Fundamental Risks for Hyperinflation and Systemic Instabilities Promise New Highs for Gold and Silver Prices, Irrespective of the August 11th Sell-Offs
• Historic GDP Collapse Wiped Out the Last Five Years of Economic Growth
• Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Plunged at an Unprecedented, Albeit Consensus, Annualized Quarterly Pace of 32.9% (-32.9%), Down Year-to-Year by 9.5% (-9.5%)
• Given Limited-Quality Hard Data, Has Headline Reporting Turned to the Consensus?
• Benchmarked GDP Received a Boost from New Trade-Deficit Reporting Gimmicks
• Nonetheless, Rebound from the Pandemic-Driven Economic Collapse Is Faltering
• L-Shaped Economic Recovery Has Begun to Take Form, as July Jobs and Unemployment Improvement Decelerated, Amidst Continuing Pandemic-Disrupted Surveying and Reporting Quality Issues
• Labor-Market Stress Has Intensified as Unemployment Claims Gyrate Around Still-in-Depression Levels; Fed Sees Early Indications of Renewed Pullback in Consumer Activity
• U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating Rumblings Mount as Congress and the White House Negotiate a Second Round of Massive, Expanded Deficit Spending
• Stalled Recovery Will Generate Even Greater Spending and Monetary Excesses
• Federal Reserve Record Money Supply Expansion Continues, Despite Benchmarked Money Numbers Showing Minimally Slower Growth