Category Archives: Offshore

No. 905: July Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Freight Index

(SGS Subscription required) • For the Second Time, Industrial Production Has Regained Its Pre-Recession Peak of December 2007, Now Up by 0.14%, but Still Down 1.07% (-1.07%) from Its November 2014 Two-Month Recovery Peak
• Once Again, the Production Recovery Reflected Tops in Oil and Gas Exploration and Extraction, Which Are Vulnerable to Low Oil Prices
• In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector: A Record 115 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight
• July Manufacturing Was Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 6.04% (-6.04%)
• Non-Recovered Freight Growth Slowed Anew
• Headline July Retail Sales Surged but Were Not Credible
• Recession Signal Continued from Low Annual Real Retail Sales Growth
• Building Permits and Housing Starts Showed Deepening Contractions: Permits Fell by 2.8% (-2.8%) in First Quarter, by 11.0% (-11.0%) in Second Quarter; Starts Fell by 3.4% (-3.4%) in First Quarter, by 21.9% (-21.9%) in Second Quarter; Both Series Trended Lower in Third Quarter, Based on July Detail
• Activity Held Shy of Regaining Pre-Recession Peaks by 46.0% (-46.0%) for Building Permits, 49.2% (-49.2%) for Housing Starts and 53.0% (-53.0%) for Single-Unit Starts, While Multi-Unit Starts Have Fallen Back Anew by 33.6% (-33.6%)

No.904: Economic and Financial Market Review, July Consumer and Producer Price Indices

(SGS Subscription required) • A L E R T
• U.S. Dollar and Equity Markets Face High Risks in the Near Future, with Impact of Deteriorating Domestic-Economic Activity Exacerbated by Domestic- and Global-Political Circumstances
• Residual Squirreling Instincts in Investors: 2017 Circumstances Are More Dangerous Than in 1987
• U.S. Dollar Has Turned Down Year-to-Year
• Continued Headline Economic Slowing and Contraction Ahead
• Physical Holdings of Gold and Silver Offer Store-of-Wealth Hedging, Liquidity, Safety
• July CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.11%, Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 1.73% (Was 1.63%), with
CPI-W at 1.64% (Was 1.50%) and ShadowStats at 9.4% (Was 9.3%)
• Softening Annual Consumer Inflation Appears to Have Troughed, Temporarily
• July 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Slowed to 1.90% from 1.99% in June

No. 903: Labor Conditions, Construction Spending, Trade Deficit, Money Supply M3

(SGS Subscription required) • Unemployment Remained Well Shy of Common Experience; U.3 at 4.3% in 2017 Is Not the Same as the 4.3% Circumstance in 2001
• July 2017 Unemployment Rates Effectively Were Unchanged: U.3 Eased to 4.35% (4.3497% Rounds to 4.3%) from 4.36% (Rounds to 4.4%), U.6 Eased to 8.57% from 8.59%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 22.1%
• Annual Payroll Growth Notched Lower to 1.50%, a Level Common at the Onset of Recessions
• Private Jobs Surveying Showed Renewed Collapse in July 2017
• Headline Annual Growth in Inflation-Adjusted, Real Take-Home Pay, Formally Per Capita Real Disposable Income, Revised Sharply Lower
• Real Annual Growth in June 2017 Construction Spending Turned Negative in a Manner Last Seen During the Housing Collapse of 2006
• Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Has Shifted to Down-Trending from Low-Level Stagnation
• Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened versus First-Quarter; Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Deficit Were Worst Since 2007
• Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.2% in July from 3.1% in June

No. 902-B: Second-Quarter GDP, 2017 Annual Benchmark Revisions

(SGS Subscription required) • Positive Variance (Nonsense Reporting) in Revamped GDP Detail Intensified versus Softening, Non-Expanding Underlying Economic Reality
• Advance Estimate of Second-Quarter 2017 Real GDP Came in at a Near-Consensus 2.57% versus a Revised First-Quarter 1.24% (Previously 1.42%)
• Despite Rapidly-Faltering Activity in Key Underlying Economic Series, Second-Quarter GDP Gained both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year
• With Headline Real GDP Growth Approaching, but Still Below Historical Averages, Slowing Quarterly Inflation and Relatively Stronger Inventory Changes More than Accounted for the Increase in Real Second-Quarter Growth
• Benchmark Revisions Lowered 2016 Annual Real Growth to Its Lowest Reading Since the 2009 Depths of the Recession
• With Advance Second-Quarter Activity Yet to Be Reported, Real First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised Lower to 0.94% (Previously 1.07%)
• The Theoretical GDP Equivalent, Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI), Revised Higher to 2.23% (Previously 1.01%) in the First-Quarter, Thanks to Massive Downside Revisions to Second-, Third- and Fourth-Quarter 2016
• Better-Quality Series Continue Showing Protracted-Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs, No Economic Expansion

No. 902-A: First-Estimate Second-Quarter GDP, 2017 Annual Benchmark Revisions

(SGS Subscription required) • Nonsense GDP Reporting Intensified
• “Advance” Estimate of Second-Quarter 2017 Real GDP Came in at a Near-Consensus 2.57% versus a Downwardly-Revised 1.24% First-Quarter Estimate
• Annual Benchmark Revisions Were Minimal in Aggregate, Showing Weaker GDP Growth in 2016 and Somewhat Stronger Growth in 2014 into 2015
• Gross Domestic Income (GDI) and Gross National Product (GNP) Growth Rates Also Slowed in 2016 Revisions