Category Archives: Economy and Meltdown

Polls: Americans Don’t Want Trump to Be Impeached

The majority of Americans don’t think Trump should be impeached.

The Hill reports:

A majority of American voters say there is no evidence of collusion between members of President Trump’s campaign and Russia and most are doubtful that investigations into the matter will lead to impeachment.


Those are the results of the new Harvard-Harris survey, provided exclusively to The Hill, which found that 54 percent of voters said they have not seen evidence to suggest that Trump campaign officials conspired with Moscow to influence the 2016 election.


Respondents were largely split along partisan lines, with 80 percent of Republicans saying there is no evidence of collusion and 74 percent of Democrats saying there is. Only 38 percent of independents said there is evidence of collusion.


When voters were asked, irrespective of the evidence, whether they believe that Trump campaign officials had coordinated with Moscow, 52 percent said no and 48 percent said yes. A majority of independents, 54 percent, didn’t think there was any collusion.




Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed said they expect the [special prosecutor’s] investigation, now led by former FBI Director Robert Mueller, will lead to the end of the Russia inquiry, while 41 percent said it would lead to Trump’s impeachment.

But Americans don’t buy Trump’s claim that he’s “draining the swamp.”

Politico writes:

Less than a quarter of Americans surveyed in a new Monmouth University poll released Wednesday said President Donald Trump is making progress on his promise to “drain the swamp” of Washington corruption.


Thirty-two percent of those polled said Trump is actually making the “swamp” worse, while just 24 percent said he is draining it. Thirty-five percent of respondents said the president has done nothing to change Washington’s culture.

Indeed, the real problem with Trump isn’t that he’s a Ruskie-lover … it’s that he’s just as much of a sell out as our other recent presidents.

“When It Comes To Trading, Romance Is For Losers”

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

A few readers have asked me to tell more stories about trading. They encouraged me to share more of my experiences throughout the years.

After giving it some thought, I decided that instead of taking the easy road and recounting a tale of when I was fortunate enough to nail some trade, I would approach from the opposite direction. In keeping with my theme that all I bring to the party is 25 years of mistakes, I have decided to recount a losing trade. And not only that, instead of just picking one losing episode, I will confess a weakness I still struggle with today.

But before I do that, I would like to talk about a book. I have always been a big Michael Lewis fan. Ever since reading Liar’s Poker as a young kid trying to make it onto a trading desk, it has held a special place in my development. Throughout the years, as Michael has published more books, I have devoured them with a ferocity reserved for just a handful of authors.

Yet when Lewis published his most recent book, The Undoing Project, I did not rush out to buy it. The story of two psychologists and their relationship throughout the years? It sounded hokey and not at all interesting. Deciding Michael had finally jumped the shark, I ignored the new release.

Lucky for me, my old man is retired and has more time on his hands. More importantly, he did not suffer the same prejudices. He bought it. After reading it, he plopped it in my hands and encouraged me to give it a whirl.

Was I ever wrong about my initial impressions. Michael Lewis’ The Undoing Project could be one of his finest books. As traders and investors, we should all be forced to read it.

The psychological concepts the two main characters discovered are essential to understanding the constant battle we are all fighting when we trade. The themes throughout the book are complex and become more nuanced, but at its heart, the book is about the understanding that human beings do not act rationally with anywhere near the frequency that most of us believe.

Specifically, humans have trouble with statistics. There are tendencies embedded within us that are difficult to overcome. In fact, the story’s two heroes developed experiments designed to exploit these biases. It was no surprise that the average person failed to overcome this human flaw. But more importantly, even professors who were trained in statistics were unable to correct for this bias.

In their breakthrough paper, the two psychologists concluded;

“People’s intuitive expectations are governed by a consistent misperception of the world.”

This observation has profound ramifications for almost all social sciences. Economists especially, base their entire framework on people behaving rationally. Yet these two psychologists had just proven that this was not always the case.

There was one part of the book that really hit home. It was when a statistics professor explained that he understood what was happening with the experiment, yet he felt the pull to go the other way. His logical brain was telling him one thing, but another part was telling him something different.

And for me, this is the perfect analogy to one of my biggest trading weaknesses.

Do you know those days when something dramatic happens in the market and stocks rocket up 1% or more at the open? Maybe it is a big employment report, or maybe some Central Bank eases.

Either way, the market opens at 9:30 and you are staring at a big gap open. Everyone is all bulled up, and excitement fills the air.

Let me assure you, I know the statistics. By far and away, on those days, the most likely outcome is for the market to chop around for the first half hour, fake a couple of sell offs, then start grinding higher. At lunch, the grind might slow down, but then at 1pm, the buying resumes. At 2:30pm there is often a decline, and it looks like it might roll over. Yet that dip is met with more buying, and the market proceeds to rip into the close, finishing at the highs of the days as the shorts cover. Although this doesn’t always happen, this is the correct bet. In fact, it’s better than the correct bet, it’s a great setup.

But I find it extremely difficult to trade this scenario. In my mind, I have glorified the handful of times (most likely one hand) that the gap open proved to be an “all baked in situation.” I distinctly remember a couple of days on the program trading desk where my floor partner and I stood in there, shorting futures to locals and ETFs to institutional clients, taking the other side of the buying panic. Before we could figure out how short we were, the buying dried up, and then next thing we knew, the market rolled over, and we were deep into sell programs, buying back our position while hammering stocks lower in the cash market with our sell baskets.

Even as I write this, there is a smile on my face. I loved being right while everyone else was wrong. It was almost romantic.

Yet I can’t tell you how much money I have wasted over the years trying to replicate these romantic dreams in my head. It is enormous, and it has cost me so much mental and actual physical capital. Springsteen wrote about the old deadbeat sitting at the bar thinking ‘bout it, and I now understand a little better what he meant.

When it comes to trading, romance is for losers.

I struggle with these different tugging forces. My logical brain knows I shouldn’t be shorting that open, but the other side desperately wants to relive those glory days.

And this is what trading is all about. We are constantly battling what we want to do, and what we should do. Even those who understand the game exceptionally well, are constantly battling their own inner demons.

Everyone’s demons take a different form, but make no mistake, we all have them.

Michael Lewis’ book told the story of the psychologists who proved they exist. We are not rational actors. Our brains are not wired to make consistent correct statistical calculations. The sooner we understand that reality, the better our trading will be.

I have by no means conquered my affliction. A little part of me worries that by writing this piece, I have almost assured the next big gap open will fail and roll over. Maybe I should just try shorting the gap higher one more time…

John McAfee’s New Company is Making a Killing in Bitcoins, But No One Gives a Damn

Crazy John McAfee from the jungles of Belize is running a tiny company, specializing in cyber-security and mining bitcoins.

Revenues for the last quarter eclipsed $300k, based solely on mining activities.

The stock has been stuck in retard range, thanks to a pending SEC execution.

Nevetheless, McAfee says his little offal of a company will be profitable by year end — all thanks to bitcoins.

“We will definitely be profitable before the end of the year,” McAfee said in a phone interview Wednesday. “From bitcoin mining, we will get the experience and expertise to apply the blockchain to our security products.”

Their bitcoin mining operations are located deep in the mountains of Washington state, manned by two lads whose only task is to ensure the air conditioners are operating efficiently, in order to protect the mining machines from overheating.

There’s digital gold in them hills.


On Monday, the company said it got financing to acquire 1,000 mining computers from Bitmain Tech, a Chinese based firm. With these new computers, MGT will have a total of 1,300 mining for bitcoins. McAfee’s goal is to become the biggest bitcoin miner in the world.

With the new mining capacity, McAfee intends to generate 225 bitcoins per mo, up from the current 100.

The blockchain has taken on an absurd amount of ‘alternative currencies.’ One of the hot one’s now is based on RARE PEPE art, designated as PEPE CASH, backed by rare Pepe art. You can’t make this stuff up. McAfee insists we’re not in a crypto-bubble.

“No matter how much government and regulators may scream and complain, there will be a world standard alternative currency,” McAfee said. “Bitcoin appears to be the one… It cannot possibly be a bubble.”

Aside from suing Intel for the right’s to rename their company John McAfee Global Technologies, McAfee’s employees, 12 in total, are focused on cyber-security. They’ve developed a product dubbed ‘Sentinel’, which is an anti-hacking software, and they’re developing a ‘ phone’ that has a kill switch on it.


“I don’t know anyone more capable than me,” said McAfee. “I have never lost in terms of business and I certainly don’t intend to start now.”

Content originally published at


China “National Team” Rescues Stocks As Downgrade Crushes Commodities

Iron ore led a slump in industrial commodities after Moody’s Investor Service downgraded China’s credit rating and warned that the country’s debt position will worsen as its economic expansion slows. However, one glance at the divergence between industrial metals’ collapse and the sudden buying panic in Chinese stocks confirms what Asher Edelman noted yesterday about the US markets, China’s so-called “National Team” was clearly intervening


As Bloomberg reports, Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell as much as 5.6 percent to 452 yuan a metric ton, almost by the daily limit, before closing at 455.50 yuan, extending Tuesday’s 3 percent loss. Nickel led a broad slump among base metals, dropping as much as 2.4 percent to $9,125 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Nickel stockpiles rose the most in more than a year.

In context, the overnight reversal in Chinese stocks is even more obvious…

Moody’s move, downgrading China’s debt to A1 from Aa3, adds to concerns about the effects of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, following on from downbeat manufacturing readings and weak commodity imports, Simona Gambarini, an analyst at Capital Economics Ltd., said by phone from London. “We’re not particularly concerned about credit growth getting out of hand, but in regards to industrial metals, we have been negative on the outlook for some time on the basis that Chinese growth will slow.”

Will The National Team be back tonight?

Montana Republican “Body-Slams” Guardian Reporter Over Healthcare Question

Montana Republican congressional candidate Greg Gianforte reportedly “body slammed” Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs during an interview after being pressed for his opinion on the CBO healthcare score. Gianforte is the Republican candidate in Thursday’s special election for Montana’s open U.S. House seat.

“I’m sick and tired of you guys! The last time you came in here you did the same thing. Get the hell out of here! Get the hell out of here!


Greg Gianforte just body slammed me and broke my glasses

— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) May 24, 2017

Jacobs told MSNBC’s Chris Hayes that he was trying to ask Gianforte about the Congressional Budget Office’s financial analysis of the Republican health care plan when “the next thing I know, I’m being body-slammed.”

“He’s on top of me. My glasses are broken,” Jacobs said. “It’s the strangest thing that’s happened in my entire life reporting.”

Jacobs said he fell on his elbow and was waiting to be X-rayed.

The Guardian has released the audio of the event…

NBC News reports that , in a statement, Shane Scanlon, a spokesman for Gianforte’s campaign, alleged that Jacobs crashed an interview Gianforte was giving another reporter “and began asking badgering questions,” adding that “Jacobs was asked to leave.”

“Greg then attempted to grab the phone that was pushed in his face,” Scanlon said.


“Jacobs grabbed Greg’s wrist, and spun away from Greg, pushing them both to the ground.


“It’s unfortunate that this aggressive behavior from a liberal journalist created this scene at our campaign volunteer BBQ,” he said.

The Gallatin County Sheriff’s Office and and representatives of the state Republican Party didn’t immediately respond to NBC News’ requests for comment.

The question is – was the video more like this…

@Bencjacobs This is a body slam. Did this happen?

— Kristopher Tapley (@kristapley) May 24, 2017

Or this…

@kristapley @Bencjacobs Probably like this

— Hman(Harold Romero) (@H_man78) May 24, 2017

But on a more serious note, it appears the constant tensions between a liberal media and not-liberal politicians is reaching a tipping point.