All posts by admin46x

The Top 15 Economic 'Truth' Documentaries


On a regular basis we are placated by commercials to satisfy our craving to know which bathroom tissue is the most absorbent; debates ‘infomercials’ assuaging our fears over which vice-presidential candidate has the best dentist; and reality-shows that comfort our ‘at least I am not as bad as…’ need; there is an inescapable reality occurring right under our propagandized nose (as we noted here). Economic Reason has gathered together the Top 15 ‘reality’ economic documentaries – so turn-on, tune-in, and drop-out of the mainstream for a few hours…

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Guest Post: How To Spot A Keynesian


The truth of the matter is that there is no such thing as a free lunch. The phony prosperity of monetary inflation is entirely illusory. You cannot get something for nothing. “So, whenever you see a criticism of austerity as fostering recession, you are reading a Keynesian. He may not call himself a Keynesian, but in this case, he is delusional. Only Keynesianism teaches that reduced national government spending (“austerity”) in a nation whose national government spends 40% of its GDP (Greece) will produce a recession.” Keynesian economic pundits advance many fallacious arguments about government spending. Chief among them is the egregious notion that mortgaging your posterity with debt and deficits is somehow “virtuous.”

 

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Beta Testing QE 4 – "Large Amount " Of $100 Bills Stolen From Federal Reserve


A month ago, just before the launch of QEternity, we caught a rare glimpse of what may be the beta test of one of the Fed’s latest ploys in “unconventional monetary easing” when bank robbers decided to throw money out of their car in central LA during a police pursuit. Today, a month later, and 4 weeks after Bernanke’s latest open-ended monetary easing, incorrectly reference virtually everywhere as QE3 (as Twist has had more flow impact on the market than QE 1 and 2 combined) has proven to be, at least so far, an absolute failure, we learn what perhaps may be an even more “effective” approach to juicing the monetary supply with quite literally brand new, freshly printed Benjamins. From AP: “Federal authorities are warning merchants to be on the lookout for stolen $100 bills that aren’t supposed to go into circulation until next year. The bills were stolen from an airplane that landed in Philadelphia from Dallas Thursday morning. The plane had been transporting money from the Federal Reserve facility in Dallas.”

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Guest Post: The Problem With Centralization


The European Union is a horrible, stupid project. The idea that unification would create an economy that could compete with China and be more like the United States is pure garbage. What ruined China, throughout history, is the top-down state. What made Europe great was the diversity: political and economic. Having the same currency, the euro, was a terrible idea. It encouraged everyone to borrow to the hilt. The most stable country in the history of mankind, and probably the most boring, by the way, is Switzerland. It’s not even a city-state environment; it’s a municipal state. Most decisions are made at the local level, which allows for distributed errors that don’t adversely affect the wider system. Meanwhile, people want a united Europe, more alignment, and look at the problems. The solution is right in the middle of Europe — Switzerland. It’s not united! It doesn’t have a Brussels! It doesn’t need one.”

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The US Fiscal 'Moment': Cliff, Slope, Or Wile E. Coyote?


The overhwelming majority of investors seem to believe that some compromise will be reached to resolve the looming fiscal drag, and as we noted here, this fact is more than priced into markets. As Barclays notes however, a big deal that encompasses entitlement and tax reform is very unlikely before year-end. Hence, if the ‘cliff’ is avoided, it will be because Congress extends all expiring provisions for some time while it works on a bigger deal. Such an ‘extension/compromise’ move would not reduce investor uncertainty if it were only for a few months; bond markets would simply start counting down to the new date. More importantly, the discussion about the fiscal cliff misses a broader point: the US will probably have significant fiscal tightening over the next decade that is a drag on medium-term growth. Yet more investors dismiss last year’s reaction to the debt-ceiling debate – a 17% decline in 2 weeks – as any kind of precedent, claiming (falsely) that this was more due to European financial difficulties. We expect fiscal issues to be the defining drivers of the next several quarters and as BofAML notes, Washington’s view of this ‘process’ as a ‘slope’ combined with the dangerously negative election campaign (which will need a 180-degree reversal for any compromise) means the likelihood of a Wile E. Coyote Moment is considerably higher than most expect.

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