No. 978 Second Part Residential Construction, Home Sales, Construction Spending and Revised GDP

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Tightening Has Strangled Consumer Liquidity
• October 2018 U.S. Construction Spending Revised and Turned Sharply Lower, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment, Consistent With an Unfolding New Recession
• Plunging October Residential Construction and Home Sales Numbers All Continued in Deepening Downtrends and Intensifying Quarterly Contractions
• Second Estimate of Third-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized Real Growth Was Unrevised at 3.50%, Versus 4.16% in Second-Quarter
• Yet, Downside Revisions to Motor Vehicle Consumption and Upside Inventory Revisions Pushed Third-Quarter Final Sales Down to a Revised 1.23% from 1.43%, Versus 5.33% in Second-Quarter 2018
• Also Hitting GDP Growth, the Record Deficit in Third-Quarter Net Exports Expanded in Revision to a New Record Trade Shortfall
• Negative Early Trend for the Fourth-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Suggests an Even Greater Net-Exports Hit to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP
• Hints of a Recession-Driven Shift in Federal Reserve Policy Intensify Risks of Major Financial-Market Upheaval
• Watch for U.S. Dollar Weakness/Instability and Spiking Gold and Silver Prices; the Dollar and Precious Metals Serve as the Canary in the Coal Mine for the Domestic Stock and Bond Markets

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