No. 977: October Labor Numbers and Money Supply, September Trade Deficit, Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Third-Quarter U.S. Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Was the Worst Ever
• Consumer Outlook Plummets
• Private Surveying of October 2018 Labor-Market Demand Showed Sharp Slowing
• October U.3 Unemployment Rose to 3.74% from Record-Low 3.68% in September; Broader U.6 Unemployment Eased to 7.43% from 7.45%; On Top of U.6, ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Notched Lower to 21.2% from 21.3%
• Intense Labor-Market Stresses Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Near a Record High, Not a Record Low
• October Payroll Gain of 250,000, versus 118,000 in September Likely Reflected a Relative Boost versus Hurricane-Depressed September Numbers
• Third-Quarter 2018 Real Construction Spending Contracted Quarter to Quarter, Total Construction Spending Fell at an Annualized Pace of 1.7% (-1.7%), Private Residential Construction Spending Contracted by 6.6% (-6.6%), Down by 2.8% (-2.8%) Before Inflation Adjustment
• Weakening Residential Construction and Sales Activity Reflect Impact of Federal Reserve Tightening and Related Consumer Liquidity Squeeze
• Annual M3 Growth Sank to a 14-Month Low in October 2018, with M2 at an 8-Year Low, and M1 at a 10-Year Low (Other Than For Recent Months); With the Level of the Monetary Base at a 21-Month Low

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