No. 976: Third-Quarter 2018 GDP, September 2018 New Orders for Durable Goods, New-Home Sales

(SGS Subscription required) • Real Third-Quarter 2018 GDP Gained 3.50%, Against 4.16% in Second-Quarter, Yet, Where 70.7% of the Increase in the Level of Quarterly GDP Was in Inventories, Annualized Real Final Sales Growth Plunged to 1.43% from 5.33%
• Third-Quarter Real GDP Stood 18.5% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak, but Held Shy by 4.9% (-4.9%) of Recovering that Peak, Corrected for Understated GDP Inflation
• Advance Estimate of Third-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Indicated Worst-Ever Quarterly Merchandise Trade Shortfall
• Third-Quarter GDP Confirmed Massive Quarterly Trade-Balance Deterioration, Worst-Ever Quarterly Shortfall in Net Exports of Goods and Services
• September New-Home Sales Collapsed to a 21-Month Low on Top of Downside Revisions; Second-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction and Sharply Deepening Six-Month Downtrend Confirmed Plunging Headlines Seen in Other Residential Construction and Sales Series; Activity Constrained by FOMC Policies Pummeling Consumer Liquidity
• Third-Quarter GDP Also Showed Third-Consecutive Quarterly Contraction in Private Residential Investment
• Federal Reserve Tightening Has Hit Consumer- and Systemic-Liquidity Hard, Continuing to Threaten Any Nascent Economic Recovery
• September Real New Orders for Durable Goods Growth of 0.6% Was a Contraction of 0.8% (-0.8%), Ex-Defense, With Gains Increasingly Driven by Government Spending, Not by the Consumer

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