No. 975: September Retail Sales, Production, Freight, Housing Starts, Hurricanes and FOMC

(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Discussions of Raising Rates to Restrictive Levels Are After the Fact; Higher Rates Already Are Pummeling Near-Term Economic Prospects and Threatening Financial-System Stability in this Still-Experimental and Unresolved Post-2007/2008-Crisis Environment
• Oil-Price Driven Inflation Does Not Reflect an Overheating ; It Hurts Consumer Liquidity Just as Much as Federal Reserve Rate Hikes
• Faltering Consumer Liquidity Clobbered September 2018 Retail Sales and New Residential Construction
• Real Annual Retail Sales Growth Slowed in a Manner Most Commonly Seen at the Onset of a New Recession
• Building Permits, Housing Starts and Home Sales Just Entered What Could Be Considered a New Recession
• Third-Quarter Permits and Starts Fell in Consecutive Quarterly Contractions; Existing-Home Sales Declined in a Third Consecutive Quarterly Contraction; All Key Residential Series Are in Deepening Six-Month Downtrends
• Minimal Monthly Growth in September Consumer Goods Production Came Entirely from Downside Revisions to August Activity
• With No End in Sight, September 2018 Manufacturing Remained Shy by 4.8% (-4.8%) of Recovering Its December 2007 Pre-Recession Peak
• The 129 Straight Months (43 Straight Quarters) of Economic Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Longest Such Period in the 100-Year History of the Series
• Mixed Data Distortions/Disruptions from the Hurricanes of 2018 and 2017

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