No. 974: September Consumer and Producer Price Indices, Liquidity and Markets

(SGS Subscription required) • As Some Acorns Begin to Fall, Beware the Dollar; Risks of Major Financial-Market Upheaval Are High
• Ongoing Federal Reserve Rate Hikes and Related Policies Have Continued to Tighten Systemic and Consumer Liquidity, Pummeling Retail Sales, and Near-Term Economic Prospects, and Threatening Financial-System Stability
• Hurricane-Triggered Boosts to Energy Prices in September 2017 Depressed Relative Year-to-Year Inflation Rates in September 2018; Annual Consumer Inflation Should be Pushing Three-Percent by December
• CPI-U Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.28% in September 2018 versus 2.70% in August 2018
• CPI-W Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.33% in September 2018 versus 2.87% in August 2018
• September Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired
• 2019 Social Security COLA of 2.8% (Based on the CPI-W), Would Have Been 2.4% Using the C-CPI-U, Which Has Been Designed for That Purpose, But Not Yet Implemented
• FOMC-Targeted Core CPI Inflation, Little Affected by Year-Ago Hurricane Disruptions, Held at 2.17% Year-to-Year in September 2018 versus 2.20% in August 2018
• Aggregate PPI Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions, Softened to 2.64% in September 2018 versus 2.83% in August 2018

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