No. 959-B: Expanded Coverage of June Labor Conditions, May Trade Deficit and an Economic Update

(SGS Subscription required) • Consumer Liquidity Stresses Intensify
• Bias Factors Generated 45% of the 2.4 Million Payroll Jobs “Created” in the Twelve Months Through June 2018
• June Payroll Survey Gained 213,000 Jobs (up by 250,000 Net of Revisions), but Annual Growth of 1.6% Still Held in Recession-Signal Territory
• In Contrast the Household Survey Lost 89,000 (-89,000) Full-Time Employed, and Gained 145,000 Part-Time Employed
• June U.3 Unemployment Rate Rose a Statistically-Significant 0.30% in the Month; Headline Monthly Gain of 0.2% Simply Was a Rounding Artefact of June U.3 Rising to 4.0% (4.05%) from 3.8% (3.75%) in May
• Labor-Market Stress Remained at High Levels, Consistent with Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low
• Official U.3 and the Broader U.6 Unemployment Measures Cannot Reconcile that Conflicting Circumstance, but the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Measure Does
• June U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.79% from 7.65% in May, While the June ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rose to 21.5% from 21.4%
• May 2018 Balance-of-Payments Trade Deficit Shrank for Third-Straight Month; Driven by Large, Irregular Export Surges That Should Reverse Shortly

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