No. 953-A: May 2018 Monetary Conditions, Labor Numbers, April Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Federal Reserve Has Pushed Real Annual Money Supply Growth Down to Levels That Threaten an Intensifying, “New” Economic Contraction
• Annual Growth Weakened Sharply for All Money Supply Measures in May 2018, Along with Continued Monthly and Annual Contractions in the Monetary Base
• May Labor-Market Stress Remained Consistent with Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High Than a Record Low
• Headline May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8%, Lowest Level Since October 2000, at the First Decimal Point
• May U.3 (Second Decimal Point) Hit a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low of 3.75%, Down from 3.93% in April, Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
• May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, the Lowest Since October 2000
• The May ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Lowest Since September 2009, Declining on Top of U.6 but Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
• May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
• Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%), Despite Surging Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions

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