No. 934-A: January Labor, Payroll Benchmark, Private Surveying, M3, December Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Recession Signal Intensified from Sinking Annual Growth in Payrolls, Despite Upside Benchmark Revisions to Payroll Levels
• Population Re-Estimation Added 488,000 Working-Age People
• January 2018 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher Month-to-Month: U.3 Firmed to 4.15% from 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 8.19% from 8.08%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.8% from 21.7%
• Private Surveying of January Labor Conditions Showed Flat Activity with Annual Contraction/No Growth and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• December Monthly Gain in Real Construction Spending Contracted Net of Downside Revisions
• Annual Growth in Real Construction Spending Declined for Seventh Straight Month, an Intensifying Recession Signal Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse
• Real Spending Is Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)
• Amidst Annual Benchmark Revisions by the Fed, January 2018 M3 Annual Growth Eased Back to 4.5%, with Monetary-Base Annual Growth Softening to 4.9%

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