No. 930-B: December Labor, Private Surveying and M3, November Trade Deficit and Construction Spending

(SGS Subscription required) • Weaker-Than-Consensus 148,000 Payroll Gain Was Boosted by Downside Revisions, Low-Level Annual Payroll Growth Continued to Signal a New Recession
• Annual Household Survey Revisions Were Negligible for Headline U.3, but Not as Placid for Broader Unemployment and Other Measures
• December 2017 Unemployment Rates Were Mixed Month-to-Month: U.3 Eased to 4.07% from 4.12%, U.6 Rose to 8.08% from 7.99% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 21.7%: No Full Employment
• Indicators of Stressed-Employment Conditions Have Re-Intensified, Following Brief, Hurricane-Distorted Improvements in September
• Private Surveying of December Labor Conditions Showed Monthly Gains, but with Annual Contraction/No Growth and Ongoing Non-Expansion
• Monthly Trade Deficit Topped $50 Billion for First Time in Five Years, with Fourth-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit on Solid Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007
• Despite a November Gain on Top of Upside Revisions, Real Construction Spending Continued in Annual Decline, as Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse, Still Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 21.4% (-21.4%)
• December 2017 M3 Annual Growth Jumped to Back to a Two-Year of 4.8%, as Monetary-Base Annual Growth Jumped to a Three-Year High of 9.7%

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