No. 928: November Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales and Revised GDP

(SGS Subscription required) • New-Home Sales Reporting-Illusion Reflected Absurd Volatility: Multi-Decade-High Surge of 17.5% in November 2017 Sales Was a Gimmick; Considering Massive Downside Revisions, Recast Sales Boom Contracted by 1.9% (-1.9%);
Headline Detail Still Shy by 47.2% (-47.2%) of Recovering Pre-Recession Peak
• Boosted Heavily by Unstable Seasonal Adjustments, November Existing-Home Sales Jumped 5.6% Month-to-Month, Still Holding Shy by 20.0% (-20.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• As Hurricane-Disruptions Work Out of the New Orders System, Real Annual Durable Goods Growth Slowed Sharply, Ex-Volatile Commercial Aircraft
• Real New Orders for Durable Goods Remained Down by 9.7% (-9.7%) from Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak
• Third Estimate of Real Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Revised to 3.16% (Previously 3.30%), versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter 2017
• Second Estimate of Third-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised to 3.65% (was 3.47%); Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 2.03% (was 2.53%)
• Better-Quality Economic Measures Still Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion

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