“She Doesn’t Know Who The F**k She’s Tweeting”: Leon Cooperman Explodes At Elizabeth Warren ‘Eat The Rich’ Ad

“She Doesn’t Know Who The F**k She’s Tweeting: Leon Cooperman Explodes At Elizabeth Warren ‘Eat The Rich’ Ad

Billionaire hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman says Sen. Elizabeth Warren “represents the worst in politicians,” and that “she doesn’t know who the fuck she’s tweeting” after the Massachusetts Democrat’s latest salvo against the rich.

A new ad by Warren, titled “Elizabeth Warren Stands Up to Billionaires,” targets Cooperman, along with former CEO of TD Ameritrade Joe Ricketts, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel according to CNBC.

In it, Cooperman – who joked in September that “they won’t open the stock market if Elizabeth Warren is the next president – has the words “CHARGED WITH INSIDER TRADING” superimposed over his face.

“As far as the accusations of insider trading, I won the case. She’s disgraceful. She doesn’t know who the f— she’s tweeting. I gave away more in the year than she has in her whole f—-ing lifetime,” Cooperman told CNBC on Wednesday.

Days before breaking out in tears on CNBC over the American political divide, sent Warren a Halloween letter in which he said she’s treating him like “a parent chiding an ungrateful child.”

Warren hit back, tweeting “Leon is wrong. I’m fighting for big changes like universal child care, investing in public schools, and free public college.”

Leon is wrong. I’m fighting for big changes like universal child care, investing in public schools, and free public college.

We can do all of that with a #TwoCentWealthTax. Leon can and should pitch in more—so that every kid has the same opportunities he did to succeed. https://t.co/38fJSXKKCJ

— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) October 31, 2019

Other business titans, including J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, have taken on Warren for her attacks on the wealthy.

Her war with business leaders has led to her crafting a strong group of supporters that have propelled her in the polls.

After being behind the Democratic front-runner, former Vice President Joe Biden, by at least 30 points in May, she has surged to being only six points from catching up to his lead, according to a Real Clear Politics polling average. -CNBC

Interestingly, Warren’s poll numbers started tanking after Warren unveiled her wealth tax plan and cooperman said “Her policies are counter-productive, they’re negative for capitalism…you don’t make the poor people rich by making the rich people poor.”

2020 Democratic candidate odds via PredictIt

Now, for fun, the inverse of Warren’s odds against the Dow:


Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/13/2019 – 21:50

Disney Did In 1 Day What Took HBO 4 Years: 10 Million Streaming Subscribers

Disney Did In 1 Day What Took HBO 4 Years: 10 Million Streaming Subscribers

Somewhere Netflix and Amazon video are sweating.

Disney announced today that Disney+ has reached a stunning 10 million plus subscribers just 24 hours after its launch yesterday in the U.S., Canada, and Netherlands; the figure surprised analysts who had expected a much slower rollout for Disney to reach that level, although let’s just ignore that most of the new “subs” are only there thanks to one of the various free streaming offers (perhaps someone should launch WeStream).

Separately, Apptopia reported 3.2 million mobile app downloads in the first 24 hours, with an estimated 89% of mobile downloads in the U.S., 9% in Canada, and 2% in the Netherlands. In just one day, users spent 1.3 million hours watching it, Apptopia said, more than Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Video, but far less than the 6 million hours watched on Netflix.

“Disney should silence naysayers who expressed reservations about a pivot to streaming,” said Geetha Ranganathan, a media analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. “It took HBO Now about four years to reach about 10 million streaming subscribers.”

That’s just the beginning: on Nov. 19, Disney+ will launch in Australia, New Zealand, and Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico’s launch was delayed one week) and will launch in Western Europe on March 31, 2020. While the service experienced first day technical glitches, this was likely due to high consumer demand which was ahead of management’s expectations and not structural issues with the app.

At this fervent adoption rate, Disney could hit its target of 60 million to 90 million worldwide subscribers in just months, if not weeks, and certainly well before the company’s original 2024 goal, according to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives. This, of course is bad news for legacy streamers such as Netflix, which could see as many as 10% of its customers lured away to rival services such as Disney+ and one from Apple that launched earlier this month.

Commenting on Disney’s stunning disclosure, JPM said that the steep ramp reflects a philosophy of “initial subscribers now; pricing later.” Disney’s willingness to debut its content-rich service at an attractive price point is leading to massive subscriber growth which will likely lead to pricing power later. To be sure, JPM noted questions arise regarding the ARPU despite the strong ramp in subs, including:

  1. subscribers opting-in to the Verizon deal for a free year of Disney+ from a potential opportunity of ~17-19m eligible Verizon customers;
  2. subscribers to the bundle with ESPN+ and ad-supported Hulu; and
  3. subscriber churn following the free seven-day trial. Overall, we are positive on the read-through for subscriber growth at ESPN+ and adsupported Hulu as the combination at $12.99/month is a compelling deal.

Even so, the bank pointed out that “the announcement surpasses our expectations for 5m subs in the first quarter; we now expect 15m subscribers in FQ120 and bump up our full year expectations from 15m to 25m.”

Separately, Disney clinched important last minute deals for its content. Ahead of the Disney+ launch, Disney started to remove on-demand content for cable customers, in our view to create heightened demand for the content and the product.
As a result, nearly all Marvel movies are available to stream in the U.S., including Avengers: Endgame (initially expected to stream on Dec. 11) as Disney struck some last-minute rights deals. Four Marvel films will remain on Netflix through the end of 2019 (Black Panther, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Avengers: Infinity War, and Thor: Ragnarok) and will stream on Disney+ in 2020.

As an aside, JPM analyst Alexia Quadrani noted that she was impressed by the content and user experience of Disney+ upon launch: “The recommendations, originals tab, as well as different collections under the search tab make it very easy to navigate through content and find what one is looking for. We did experience some technical issues on launch day, which we think is due to strong demand and not any underlying issues given the service has been in beta for months in the Netherlands.”

Not surprisingly, DIS stock exploded higher on the announcement, climbing as much as 6.8% on Wednesday, its biggest intraday rally in seventh months, and hitting a new all time high.

Netflix shares tumbled 3.7% as its company’s investors assess how big a threat Disney+ will be.

Finally, for those curious, yesterday we showed a full breakdown of which video streaming service is showing what exclusive content; we recreate it below.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/13/2019 – 21:33

Trade Wars Slam Chinese Retail Sales, Investment Growth Weakest In 21 Years

Trade Wars Slam Chinese Retail Sales, Investment Growth Weakest In 21 Years

While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…

Source: Bloomberg

… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…

Source: Bloomberg

tonight’s macro data dump from China is expected to show continued slowing from Q3’s disappointing GDP print.

Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu notes that the October activity data are likely to show weakness continuing to spread across China’s economy, as companies adjusted to an additional 15% U.S. tariffs on $110 billion of Chinese goods in September.

  • China Industrial Production MEET +5.6% YoY vs +5.6% YoY Exp

  • China Retail Sales MISS +7.2% YoY vs +7.8% Exp

  • China Fixed Asset Investment MISS +5.2% YoY vs +5.4% Exp.

  • China Property Investment FELL to +10.3% YoY from +10.5% YoY

  • China Surveyed Jobless Rate FELL to 5.1% from 5.2%

This is the equal weakest retail sales growth since 2003 and weakest Fixed-Asset Investment growth since 1998..

Source: Bloomberg

This data confirms that China’s economy slowed further in October, signaling, as Bloomberg’s Miao Han notes, that policy makers’ piecemeal stimulus is failing to boost output and investment amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and subdued domestic demand.

As a reminder, there was the surprising divergence in the two manufacturing PMI readings, with the “official” version weakening, and the Caixin-labeled version strengthening.

Source: Bloomberg

Dow futures are exuberantly surging overnight as yuan continues to slide – disagreeing vehemently over the chances of a US-China trade deal after their joint celebrations last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we just noted, The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.

This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.

“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”

The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.

As a reminder, a GDP growth rate below 6% would be the first time since the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.

Finally, we note that Navarro and his trade hawks in the White House will be pleased at these weak numbers. President Trump has repeatedly said that China needs a deal more than the U.S. does, and these numbers as leverage in their negotiations.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/13/2019 – 21:08

Trump To Ask SCOTUS To Decide Tax Case After Appeals Court Loss

Trump To Ask SCOTUS To Decide Tax Case After Appeals Court Loss

President Trump’s accounting firm is just one step away from having to turn over eight years of tax records, after the US Court of Appeals for DC shut down Trump’s last attempt to reconsider the case.

A majority of the court’s 11-judge panel voted to uphold an October 11 decision by a three-judge panel that accounting firm Mazars USA must hand over the records to Congress without a successful appeal. Of those who would have granted a rehearing, two are Trump appointees – Neomi Rao and Gregory Katsas, who served in the Trump administration.

“This case presents exceptionally important questions regarding the separation of powers,” wrote Katsas.

He warned of the “threat to presidential autonomy and independence” and said it would be “open season on the President’s personal records” if Congress is allowed to compel the president to disclose personal records based on the possibility that it might inform legislation. –Washington Post

As a result, Trump will ask the Supreme Court to consider the case, according to Trump attorkey Jay Sekulow, who said in response to Wednesday’s decision that the legal team “will be seeking review at the Supreme Court,” according to the Washington Post.

Sekulow in a statement cited the “well reasoned dissent” in Trump’s decision to go to the Supreme Court.

Trump’s attorneys also are planning to ask the high court as soon as Thursday to block a similar subpoena for the president’s tax records from the Manhattan district attorney, who is investigating hush-money payments in the lead-up to the 2016 election. The New York-based appeals court ruled against Trump this month and refused to block the subpoena to his accounting firm, Mazars USA.

The D.C. Circuit case centers on a House Oversight Committee subpoena from March for the president’s accounting firm records — issued months before the beginning of its impeachment inquiry, related to Trump’s alleged efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate his political rival Joe Biden. –Washington Post

“Contrary to the President’s arguments, the Committee possesses authority under both the House Rules and the Constitution to issue the subpoena, and Mazars must comply,” wrote Democrat-nominated Judges David S. Tatel and Patricia A. Millett.

Rao, the dissenting judge on the October 11 panel, reiterated that she felt the Congressional committee had exceeded its authority with a legislative subpoena “investigating whether the President broke the law.”

“By upholding this subpoena, the panel opinion has shifted the balance of power between Congress and the President and allowed a congressional committee to circumvent the careful process of impeachment,” she wrote.

Rao also wrote Wednesday that the committee “is wrong to suggest” that questions over whether the subpoena is valid “are no longer of ‘practical consequence,'” and that it’s an open question as to “whether a defective subpoena can be revived by after-the-fact approval.”


Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/13/2019 – 20:50

Chinese Think Tank Becomes First Official Body To Predict 2020 GDP Will Drop Below 6%

Chinese Think Tank Becomes First Official Body To Predict 2020 GDP Will Drop Below 6%

While it will hardly come as a surprise to anyone following China’s dismal attempts at reflating the economy, which on Monday we learned translated into the lowest Aggregate Financing print since the series was established…

… reaffirming Beijing’s impotence at stimulating the all-important credit impulse which is barely above cycle lows…

… today a Beijing-based think tank has become the first Chinese economic research institute linked to the government to predict that China’s economic growth rate will slow below 6.0% next year.

The National Institution for Finance and Development (NIFD) on Wednesday said that China’s economic growth rate will slow to 5.8% in 2020 from an estimated 6.1% this year, a number which is already quite ambitious, not to say artificially goalseeked.

This, as the SCMP notes, is at the bottom end of China’s target range of 6 to 6.5% growth for 2019, and further indicates the continued downward pressure on the economy from the trade war with the United States as well as domestic headwinds.

“The economic slowdown is already a trend,” said former central bank adviser Li Yang, who heads the institute that is affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). “We must resort to deepened supply-side structural reform to change it or smooth the slowdown, rather than solely rely on monetary or fiscal stimulus.”

The institute’s forecast is in line with the International Monetary Fund, and indicates the challenge that policymakers face to achieve the above 6% growth rate needed in 2019 and 2020 to reach the government’s goal of doubling GDP in 2020 compared to its 2010 level.

According to the NIFD, China’s exports will be “negatively affected for a long period amid the slowing global economy, private investment may be dampened by trade war uncertainties, while the effects of countercyclical policies will only begin to be evident in the first quarter of next year.”

Li said the government’s fiscal deficit problem will stand out in the future, adding that the government may have to issue more bonds to fulfil its expenditure responsibilities. This could demand more bond holdings by the central bank – i.e., a more aggressive monetization of the deficit – and better coordination and institutional arrangement between fiscal and monetary authorities, suggesting that China may well be the first nation to launch some version of MMT.

“The macro control regime needs to be revamped,” he added.

China’s economy started to slow from 2011, with its growth rate already dropping to 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019, the slowest rate since quarterly growth data was first published in 1992. The continued slowdown has stirred market discussion over whether – and how far – Beijing should loosen its policy stance to support growth, as has occurred in many developed countries, including the United States.

However, with China’s debt already surpassing 300% according to the IIF…

… a continued rise in the nation’s debt level is keeping a lid on policymakers’ leeway. New NIFD data showed that the government’s macro leverage ratio – the total debt to gross domestic product – has recorded an “unsatisfactory” rise so far this year. Government leverage rose 0.7 percentage point to 39.2 per cent in the third quarter and climbed by a total of 2.0 percentage points in the first nine months of the year.

According to China’s own calculations, the country’s overall debt to GDP ratio rose to 251.1% at the end of the third quarter, up 1.6% from the previous quarter. The increase was led by the household sector, with debt rising 1.0 percentage point to 56.3% in the third quarter.

However, with few other levers to pull and despite the surge in debt, the NIFD called for a bigger central government budget deficit to allow for more expenditure to support the economy. At the same time, additional efforts should be made to reduce the leverage of state-owned enterprises, in particular zombie enterprises and local government financing vehicles.

Zhang Xiaojing, deputy director of the CASS’ Institute of Economics, said the extent of the increase in leverage would depend on the growth rate that the government is trying to achieve: “The pressure for economic stabilization next year won’t be as big [as people think],” he predicted, although that may well depend on the status of the trade war with the US.

The NIFD warned of huge uncertainties over the trade tension between China and the US, while also predicting that the yuan exchange rate would fluctuate between 7.0 and 7.2 against the US dollar next year.

“The tariff war may be basically over in 2020, but the bilateral conflicts won’t end easily,” said Zhang Ping, its deputy director, suggesting that as China joins the US in pursuit of foreign capital to funds it soon to be negative capital account, relations between the US and China are only set to deteriorate.


Tyler Durden

Wed, 11/13/2019 – 20:34

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